1:20 A.M. Winter Storm Analysis...A Grave Disappointment, But A Quick Pleasant Surprise!

Hello this is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott with a 1:20 A.M. Winter Storm Analysis...and once again we have dealt mostly with an overall disappointment of a storm...but wait! 2 hours ago we quickly saw light rain change over to a blinding burst of very heavy snowfall at my house for about an hour...quickly accumulating a quarter of an inch. The ground, my porch, driveways, and cars are all covered with a coat of white. The snow has stopped as the storm has come to an end, but let me tell you, we had a pleasant surprise about an hour/hour and a half ago as snowflakes were as big as quarters and half dollars and snowfall rates were around a half an inch per hour. Total storm accumulations in York County are ranging from a trace in the southeast to up to a half inch or inch in far northern and northwestern York County. So, having said that, my final storm total accumulation for our area of a dusting to two inches has ended up being right. I was concerned for awhile, but for once the storm actually pulled through in the end and gave some snow to the county to support my prediction. Overall, though, the storm was a disappointment as we could have seen easily 3-5 inches if precipitation had been all snow...with as much as 6 on the ridges...but that did not happen and will not happen tonight as the storm is 99% over in York County. In Harrisburg, snowfall totals were generally a half an inch to an inch/inch and a half, so my forecast for that area was right too. In Easton, PA, snowfall is still coming down moderately to heavily right now as my colleague has reported .5 inches of snow as more continues to fall. I am hoping he will see two inches just so we end up being right for his area, but it looks as if he will end up with about 1 to 1.5 inches, falling just short of my forecast. My snowfall map is doing well for places north of that line, as I had thought, except that because I am new at snow maps I forgot to include northern NY, VT, NH, and Maine in the 3-6 or 6+ area. So overall it was a well-forecasted storm at the last minute, but long-range forecasts on the storm were not so good. Also, Boston has now changed over to rain, so the 3-6 area for them may end up being slightly too much. In reality, though, where the snowfall occurred during this storm, it came down heavily and people got and still are getting creamed anywhere from I-80 north to NH, VT, and Maine. So if I have time here before I go to bed, I will try to post another final snow map for the remainder of the storm for people who still have not seen the worst of it. I am not guaranteeing that, but I will try to get it out in the next 10 or 15 minutes. So that's my winter storm analysis for now, so hope ya'll have a great night and I'll talk to ya'll tomorrow...with some more interesting news that I have saved until then! If you have any questions on this analysis or would like to know my forecast total snowfall accumulation for your area out of this storm or have thoughts on the storm please, feel free to e-mail me at akstormtracker17@yahoo.com or kyleae@earthlink.net! This has been Junior Meteorologist (Storm Tracker) Kyle Elliott with a special winter storm analysis for the AKStormtracker Forecasting Center!