In-Depth Winter Storm Discussion...Scenarios, Storm Accumulations, Etc!

Hello this is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott with an in-depth winter storm discussion...and I will touch on possible scenarios, total storm accumulations, etc. in this discussion. First, I'll deal with total storm accumulations...and my forecast may differ from models, NWS, etc., but it's honestly what I think will eventually come to fruition. Here in York, I think totals will range from 2-5 inches topped off by about a quarter inch of freezing rain. The heaviest snowfall totals will occur in the northern and western parts of the county, while the lowest totals will be found in the southern and eastern parts of the county. I would not doubt Shrewsbury, PA, seeing 2 inches while 20 miles north in Manchester, PA, sees 5 inches. It's just the kind of situation where snowfall totals will rise dramactically as one travels northward across the county. Similar snowfall totals will occur in Lancaster County where I expect 2-4 inches to fall. In Adams and Franklin Counties, totals will be slightly higher ranging from 3-6 inches. Once you move between the PA Turnpike and I-80, I believe snowfall totals will range from 4-6 inches by the Turnpike to upwards of 5-7 inches on I-80. In the Poconos, I can see how 8-11 inches of snow falls, whereas only 4-6 inches fall in Allentown and Easton, PA, before the changeover to sleet and freezing rain. Farther north in southern and southeastern NY State, I think totals will range from 6-9 inches as precipitation remains all snow but the best dynamics remain over the Pocono Mountains of northeastern Pennsylvania. Farther south in Maryland, I think 1-4 inches will fall between Frederick, MD, and Hagerstown, MD...while only about 1-2 possibly upwards of 3 inches falls on the northern suburbs of Baltimore. In Baltimore itself, I see only about 1-2 inches of snow falling...and in Washington, D.C., look for no more than 2 inches if that. In Philadelphia, totals will range from 1-3 inches before the changeover to sleet and freezing rain occurs...while NYC will see their biggest snowstorm of the season as 4-6 inches of snow whitens the ground. So, as that is about all the snowfall accumulations I'm going to give at this point, I'll think I'll move on and describe the two possible scenarios that could happen with this storm. First, snow totals could be held down if the changeover line moves northward faster as the primary low remains stronger. Second, snow totals could be slightly higher if the changeover line moves northward more slowly as the coastal low becomes stronger and takes over more quickly. So in reality, that's a wrap on what's upcoming with this major winter storm, so hope ya'll have a great rest of your evening and I'll be updating further as the evening wears on! This has been Junior Meteorologist (Storm Tracker) Kyle Elliott with a special in-depth winter storm discussion for the AKStormtracker Forecasting Center!