Sniffing Out The One Storm Worth Watching...February 16th/17th Nor'Easter Possibilites!

Hello this is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott with some serious food for thought for ya'll here this afternoon. I know there has been much talk about the 13th/14th storm for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, but I mean come on, get real...there is nothing but RAIN RAIN and more RAIN coming for that storm. There is no cold air anywhere by that time in the East and there is no cold high pressure in New York State and the Northeast that would funnel cold air into the region. The only places that will see snow from this upcoming storm are around the Great Lakes region and maybe some places in New York State...but nobody should see more than 4-5 inches anywhere from this storm. Now of course, things could change, but get real people! Anyways, I think it is time I started sniffing out the one storm that could actually be worth watching this month...and that is the storm on the 16th/17th of February that the GFS model is hinting at. Right now, the model takes the storm across the Southeast and moves it right off the Carolina coastline, but ample cold air is across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions and I see no reason why this storm would not come up the coast. Also, it seems as if when the model has the storm going south of the region on the mid-range runs, it ends up snowing/sleeting/or icing at least somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic region this winter...so this could actually be good as the model should trend the storm more northward over the next 4-5 days or so. Of course there is that chance the model could lose the storm, but I think that is unlikely just because the NAO is forecast to go negative at that time along with the fact that we are in an active pattern and a storm seems like a reasonable bet around that time. Two other points I want to make about this storm possibility...and that is that 1) If this storm were to move along the coast this time, it would probably be all snow as ample cold air is forecast to be in place, and 2) If you go back to last winter and so far this winter, you will see a pattern. If ya'll remember, last winter we had a storm (more or less an arctic intrusion with some snow) around on January 15th of last year...followed up by the Valentine's storm on February 14th...followed by the St. Paddy's Day Snowstorm on March 16th...and concluded with the April 15th surprise storm that gave snow as far south as Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Now jump forward to this winter, and what do you see? Well I see the pattern continuing as remember back on December 17th when the ice storm went up the East Coast? Well I'm sure ya'll remember that that storm was HYPED UP to be a blizzard, and ended up being a storm nonetheless. And then on January 17th, that surprise storm came up the coast and gave parts of VA, MD, and PA there first and only significant snowfall of the season thus far. So...do you see a pattern yet? Well I do...and if you haven't noticed, the pattern that has been here for the past two winters is that we seem to have one storm a month, and that storm comes right around mid-month. Also, the storms seem to happen almost exactly within a month of each other, and we have already had two storms on the 17th of the past two months this winter. So here's my theory...if this pattern has been here for the past two winters now, why should it stop now? If the pattern continues and actually comes to fruition, we would have a storm on February 16th/17th and another one on March 16th/17th before spring comes in. Last year, the storms mid-month started in January...this year, they started in December. The only thing that means is that instead of having one in April this year, the last one will probably come in March. So having said all that, I have been sniffing out a storm around the 16th of this month for the past 5 days and will continue to do so, especially since the models have begun to show at least something that could resemble a storm moving through the Southeast around this timeframe. So I just thought I'd post those thoughts for ya'll to see since they've been on my mind for almost a month or two now (especially that thought about the mid-month storm pattern), so hope ya'll have a great rest of your evening and I'll try to post more on the light snow possibilites of tomorrow and Sunday later tonight! This has been Junior Meteorologist (Storm Tracker) Kyle Elliott with some HYPE thoughts for the AKStormtracker Forecasting Center!