Sunday, November 23, 2008

Final Storm Snowfall Map For Tomorrow and Tuesday's Storm...This Is What I Base My Accuracy Off Of!


Hello this is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott...and above is my final storm snowfall/precipitation map for the storm that will affect the area from tomorrow through Tuesday. This map and corresponding forecast that I am posting now is what I base my accuracy off of as a junior meteorologist...so this will be my first official storm forecast for this winter season. Basically, if I am right, I will be one for one...and if I am wrong, I will be 0 for 1. So anyways, without further a due, let me explain the map above. The two low pressure systems above may confuse some of you, as they probably should. First, the low pressure over the Great Lakes will transfer some energy to the coast and form a low off the Delmarva...but the first low will also survive and move northeastward into western NY state. As the low from the Delmarva moves to the north, it will become trapped off Cape Cod as two high pressure systems will be blocking it from moving further northward. As a result, that low pressure will then absorb the low over the Lakes but will be pulled back inland toward the Lakes. The low pressure will then move the whole way back to where I have the first low positioned over Lake Erie, and then it will finally move northeastward as it dies away. For tomorrow night into Tuesday though, I see warm air winning out this time as the only places that will see appreciable snowfall from the system will be those areas west of the Appalachian Mountains and around the Great Lakes as lake effect snow combines with the rotating low pressure system to provide areas around the Lakes with an additional 1-3 inches of snow with locally higher amounts. Therefore, the higher amounts around the Lakes. Just east of the mountains from Frederick, MD, to Harrisburg, PA, to around Albany, NY, precipitation will start out as rain and fall mainly as that precipitation type before quickly changing over to snow at the back end of the system as cold air is pulled into the storm on the coast. I would not be surprised to see a quick inch in and around these places if temperatures are cold enough...but my basic point is that warm air should win out this time around. In the I-95 corridor, sorry, but it's an all-rain event for you guys. So that's about all I have for my final forecast for the storm tomorrow into Tuesday, so hope ya'll have a great rest of your evening and I'll post a video right after this to show ya'll what the models themselves are showing on this storm. An explanation of the models will ensue on the video, of course. Anyways, if anything crucial changes with this storm at the last minute, I will post an update and a new forecast, but my accuracy will be based off of the one you see and read here. So have a great night and I'll post my video next! This is Junior Meteorologist (Storm Tracker) Kyle Elliott reporting for the AKStormtracker Forecasting Center!

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