Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Sniffing Out A Snowstorm...
Hello this is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott with a little bit of long-range hype for ya'll this evening...and for the past 5 days or so, I have been sniffing out a snowstorm around hour 300 of the GFS model. Now, that hour is closer to 200 than 300, but as the time draws nearer, the model continues to show a stronger, more impressive storm system. Originally, I was grasping at straws as all the model showed was a strong trough digging into the East but without any energy to produce a storm. Something seemed wrong with this scenario in my mind, though, as I just could not buy the fact that a storm would not form for a week when a strong trough was in place...so I began to sniff out a snowstorm potential for the Eastern Seaboard. And wouldn't you know it, the GFS model runs from today ALL showed a storm during that time period. Granted, some of the model runs varied on the intensity, direction, and placement of the storm, but they ALL had some resemblance of a storm. The more reliable 00z and 12z runs of the model actually had a colder scenario and more snow for the Eastern Seaboard, and the fantasy runs surprisingly had no "fantasy" at all this time as they showed a rainstorm. So either way you slice it, it appears a storm will come about out of the trough that develops between days 8 and 12, but the problem is just where and when the storm will hit and just how cold it will be when the storm hits. These are all details that will have to be worked out in the next 7 days, but my sole purpose in posting this HYPE tonight is to alert ya'll that a storm will likely form in the next 1 or 2 weeks, and it does have the potential to become an early season snowfall event for the Eastern Seaboard. So I'll just keep a close eye on it, and I will try to update ya'll every day on the newest developments of this potential early season Big Daddy. I will try to post an early thoughts snowfall map later this evening, but I cannot promise anything. So, that's about all I have for ya'll for now, so hope ya'll have a great rest of your evening and I'll talk to ya'll soon! This is Junior Meteorologist (Storm Tracker) Kyle Elliott reporting for the AKStormtracker Forecasting Center!
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