Two Storm Scenarios-Which Will Come True?

Hello this is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott with our long-range discussion...and the models continue to play their normal games with the storm around the 21st of the month. The 12z run of the GFS model looked better than ever, only to be followed up by the 18z run of the same model which had nothing at all...but rather had a potential snowfall out of the first clipper storm coming south out of Canada. Now, I do NOT believe the 18z run of the model as I hardly even pay any attention to it at all anymore...but I do think its discouraging solution of little snow could still have a chance at coming true. Granted, I am leaning more toward the 12z run of the model which has an early season major snowstorm along the Eastern Seaboard...but that does not necessarily mean we will see a snowstorm. The reason I think we will see a storm is two-fold. First, I see a strong trough forming around the 19th of the month, and it should turn sharply northward once it hits the East Coast. Second, there is going to be a bubbling up of warm, moist air in the Southeastern States just before the trough comes down. This should cause a tight gradient in temperature and, as the atmosphere becomes unstable, stirred-up, and moist, I see no reason why a storm should not form. Of course, there is still much time to watch these scenarios unfold, but just like last night, I am going to once again alert all who live along the I-95 corridor of the Eastern Seaboard to keep a close eye on this potential early season snowfall. Do not think this year will be a repeat of last year, but instead keep your eyes open for a potential gut-buster of a winter. I will be doing two snowfall maps depicting each scenario right after I post this discussion...the first map will show the scenario of a simple clipper coming down from Canada, and the second map will show the more likely scenario of a coastal storm forming. So look forward to that everyone, and I'll have my maps up in the next 25 minutes. This is Junior Meteorologist (Storm Tracker) Kyle Elliott reporting for the AKStormtracker Forecasting Center!