Weather Pattern Discussion...Confusion Continues and A Difficult Forecast Is Ahead!

Hello this is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott with our weather pattern discussion...and there is much confusion among the various forecast models as to how, when, and where the storm is going to come about between this Sunday and next Wednesday. I am first going to run through the GFS and Euro models and describe each models' solution, and then I am going to give you my honest opinion of how this storm will come about. OK, so I will begin with the GFS. The GFS 6z run had a clipper storm coming across the northern tier of the country on Saturday as an upper level low in the southwest merged with a trough coming in through the Central states. As the clipper storm lollygagged through the lower Great Lakes region, it then transferred its moisture to the coast and developed a moderately strong coastal low which proceeded to produce a swath of snow from eastern Pennsylvania up through western Massachusetts and eastern Maine. After that storm moved quickly away, the trough proceeded to develop a negative tilt on the Eastern Seaboard as the upper level low in Texas then combined with moisture in the northern Gulf of Mexico. All of that moisture then proceeded to form a second storm which hugged the coast and gave only the immediate coastline from New Jersey down through eastern North Carolina any shot at seeing snowfall. 6 hours later, though, the 12z GFS ran out and gave an entirely different solution. I will not touch on that now for sake of time, but basically know that the 12z solution much more closely resembled my snowfall map I made last evening as it showed a low tracking up the spine of the Appalachians this coming Sunday night and Monday, producing a crippling snowstorm for the central Appalachian Mountains. The Euro, on the other hand, showed the clipper storm form the coastal low just like the 6z GFS, but it held the upper level low pressure system back in Mexico until December 3rd when it then brought the low out of the southwest to join up with a stronger trough coming in. Those two then combined to produce a BIG DADDY SNOWSTORM for the Eastern Seaboard on December 4th as the I-95 corridor got crushed. At the same time frame on the GFS, though, on both 6z and 12z runs, nothing but a calm weather pattern was taking shape on the East Coast. Now, on to my honest opinion. I like a compromise between the two models; that is, no storm on December 4th but rather a storm on the 1st of the month. The 12z GFS had that storm tracking up through Pittsburgh, PA, and the Euro had the storm bombing out off the coast of New Jersey. I like a compromise between the two models where the low pressure tracks up the coastal plain of Maryland and Pennsylvania before exiting offshore somewhere around Boston, MA. I do not think the snowstorm will occur throughout Eastern Ohio up through western NY, but I also do not think I-95 corridor folks will see snow either. I think there will be a narrow but crippling band of heavy snow moving right up the spine of the Appalachian Mountains, basically in the area I showed on my map last night. I think the upper level low WILL join with the trough early like the GFS showed, but I think that trough will cut up along the coastal plain instead of on the coast or west of the Appalachians. The result would be a snowfall swath like I showed on my map last night. So, that's about all I have for now, but I am planning on posting an updated snowfall map after the 18z GFS model runs out, and I will probably also post a video discussion too. These are my latest thoughts for now, though, so hope ya'll have a great afternoon and I'll talk to ya'll later this evening! This is Junior Meteorologist (Storm Tracker) Kyle Elliott reporting for the AKStormtracker Forecasting Center!