Friday, December 19, 2008

On To The Next Storm...Snow Further South This Time!

Hello this is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott...and it is time to move on to the next in the series of storms which will continue to plague the area through at least Christmas Day. First, though, a quick analysis of the snowfall map for the storm that affected the Lakes region and Northeast today. Relatively speaking, this was an easy forecast, and I pretty much nailed it with the final forecast map. There were a couple spots, I am sure, that didn't get exactly what I'm forecasted, but I'd say that overall, 90-95 percent of that map was accurate. I know that for myself it was accurate too here in York as we saw a brief period of sleet and freezing rain at the beginning of the storm system somewhere around 5 A.M. this morning, but not much else occurred besides plain rain after that hour as I had expected. I had forecasted about 3 inches of snow in Allentown, and that's exactly what they saw. Easton had 4 inches, State College an inch, and Scranton almost 10 inches. Other than those locations, I do not have any more snowfall reports available, but outside of those battleground zones the map was an easy call. So, 4 for 5 for both my local and overall accuracies this winter...or 80% accuracy so far. I may have been slightly underdone on the snowfall amounts around and just east of Boston, but other than that, everything played out as expected. So without further adieu, on to the next storm! Believe it or not, these storms are happening so close to each other than places like Reading, Allentown, and Easton, PA, already have Winter Storm Watches posted for the storm tomorrow night and Sunday while at the same time being under Winter Storm Warnings for the current storm. Crazy stuff I must say! But anyways, a storm system will travel across the southern/south-central states tomorrow afternoon and end up in eastern N.C. tomorrow evening. As the storm hits the coast moving East Northeastward, it will then intensify quickly on the coast and being to move North Northeastward towards eastern New England. In the process, snow will break out north of a line from Pittsburgh to Cumberland to Washington, DC, to Atlantic City, NJ. Personally, I have always been a fan of an all-snow event for most places north of the Mason/Dixon line with this storm, but most think otherwise. The models still are hanging on to an all-snow event and colder solutions each run, so I am in no hurry to back off of my thinking as I see a good probability of an all-snow event for places north and west of Philadelphia to Baltimore. As the storm moves past the Mid-Atlantic region, in the process dropping a solid 3-6 inch snowfall, it will then rapidly bomb-out off the New England Coast as northern New England will probably end up with 1-2 feet of wind-driven snow. So that's how I see this storm playing out right now, but I will have a snowfall map of my latest thoughts up in about a half an hour. So that's all I have for now, but look for the snowfall map in a little while. Until then, have a good one! This is Junior Meteorologist (Storm Tracker) Kyle Elliott reporting for the AKStormtracker Forecasting Center!

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