Part 2 Final Forecast...And Final Map Analysis!

Hello this is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott...and it is now going to be hard to really post part two of my final forecast that I posted last night due to the fact that it is nearly Midnight on Tuesday. So, instead of posting a long written discussion forecasting wintry precipitation, I will instead focus mostly on an analysis of how my final precipitation map played out. First, though, the forecast until Midnight tonight. Anybody south of the PA turnpike will now see a mix of sleet and freezing rain until Midnight as a Winter Weather Advisory is up for all southern tier counties. Between I-76 and I-80, precipitation will transition from snow to a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain by 10 or 11 P.M. EST. North of I-80, precipitation will fall mostly in the form of snow until at least Midnight or 2 A.M. Wednesday morning. Sleet and freezing rain amounts will be on the order of a quarter to a half an inch across southern tier counties through Midnight, and around a quarter inch between I-76 and I-80. The heavy band of snow that was focused mainly across the Susquehanna Valley region of Pennsylvania for basically the entire day will lift northward throughout the next couple hours and produce around an inch of snow for most places across the far northern tier. The band is quickly diminishing in intensity, though, so do not expect the 2-4 inch amounts common between the Mason/Dixon line and a State College, Selinsgrove, Allentown line that fell earlier this afternoon. Speaking of snowfall, I think it now time to analyze how my shortwave map did that I am counting as a forecast which will contribute to my forecasting accuracy this winter. Anyways, I forecasted 1-3 inches for mostly everybody south of the turnpike, with 2-4 inches just north of Harrisburg. This forecast was nearly perfect as everybody in the 1-3 zone basically saw 1-3 inches, with some isolated 3-4 inch amounts between Carlisle and Hazleton. I would say that 90% of my map was correct, so both my local accuracy and overall accuracy for this winter has now improved to 3 out of 4, or 75%. The only places that saw a bust on my map were the narrow sliver around Pittsburgh where I put a mix. Those places actually saw an inch or two of snow in some places before mixing over, and northern NJ into western NYC saw around an inch or two of snow where I put a mix and/or coating to an inch. So those two small areas were slightly incorrect on the final map, but everywhere else on the map came to fruition. The mix zone was exactly where I had it on the map, so those places saw what was expected. I will say, most everybody in the snow area saw the higher amounts of my forecast range on my map, so it was a pleasant surprise for once this year. The band of snow simply stayed in place across southern and central Pennsylvania today, and therefore resulted in heavier snowfall rates and more snow than the lower to middle part of the forecasted range. Here at my house in central/northern York County, we saw exactly 2.75 inches of snow, and now we are seeing heavy sleet with freezing rain starting to mix in. So, the overall forecast worked out to be very good, and many places saw a pleasant surprise today as temperatures were colder than expected and moisture was more ample, therefore resulting in the high end of the forecasted snowfall accumulation range. So that's about all I have for now, so hope ya'll have a great rest of your evening and I'll talk to ya'll later! Hopefully I will be able to post around 10 P.M. to talk about the VERY active, wintry pattern potentially coming up throughout the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast over the next 2-9 days, but I am not sure I will be able to get that post up until tomorrow. Regardless, though, wintry precipitation will continue throughout the remainder of the night across the forecast region; and a very active pattern will be setting up throughout the next week to 10 days as not one, not two, but three storms potentially affect the region before Christmas Day. So that's all for now, and I'll talk to ya'll later. This is Junior Meteorologist (Storm Tracker) Kyle Elliott reporting for the AKStormtracker Forecasting Center!

P.S. Storm One will occur Thursday night and Friday. Storm Two is set to push through on Sunday. Storm Three looks to push through on Christmas Eve into Christmas Day...and believe it or not, that storm has the best potential to be a MAJOR snowfall producer... More to come later...