Record Warmth This Weekend...Then A New Year's Blizzard?

Hello this is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott with a weather pattern discussion...and the first thing that is overwhelming pressing that I must discuss is the possible record warmth that will surge into the Eastern part of the U.S. tomorrow and Sunday. A strong storm system will gather in the High Plains tonight and tomorrow, and that system will then proceed to track northeastward through the western Great Lakes and possibly as far west as eastern Minnesota. When a system tracks that far westward this time of year, the stage is then set for a major one-to-two day warm-up across the Eastern part of the nation. This will come true this time, too, as many places across the Eastern U.S. will see highs ranging from a good 15-35 degrees above normal on Saturday and Sunday. On Saturday, 60s will surge as far northward as western Pennsylvania through Ohio and Indiana with 50s from central and eastern Pennsylvania down to the Mason/Dixon Line. From D.C. southward, 60s should rule the roost as the "wedge" of slightly cooler air will break up to the Mason/Dixon line. A true wedge, where temperatures in southern PA get stuck around 40 while Baltimore and Washington see highs in the 60s, though, will not set up. It will be a more general wedge where temperatures in Washington and Baltimore hover around 59-62 while southern PA from Harrisburg to Lancaster to York see highs between 52-58. Record warmth could be found across West Virginia into Western PA, though, as highs could crack 70 in Charleston, WV, and 65 in Pittsburgh, PA. On Sunday, areas west of the Appalachian Mountains will see a cold front put an end to the record warmth, but the Eastern Seaboard will see their warmest day on Sunday with temperatures reaching the 60s possibly the whole way north to southeastern NY State. Farther south, D.C. and Baltimore could see highs approach 70 degrees, and Philadelphia could see highs in the middle to upper 60s. 70s to possibly even a 75-80 degree reading could be found from central Virginia down through Florida as a warm surge of tropical air will come shooting up the entire Eastern Seaboard on Sunday. Just as soon as the warmth arrives, though, it will be gone as the cold front will sweep past the East Coast and drop temperatures quickly back into the 40s to around 50 for most places. The brutal cold experienced about 3-5 days ago, though, will NOT return as temperatures will only fall to seasonal norms or even slightly above the norms for this time of year. A TRUE pattern change, though, could be in store around December 31st, though, as a strong Alberta Clipper System will charge southeastward and bring another Arctic surge of frigid air southward through the entire Eastern half of the country. The forecast then becomes tricky as most models show a major storm around the 2nd of the month...the problem is, though, like always, where will the storm track and will it be able to catch the cold air to produce an I-95 blizzard? Right now, my thinking is that this storm will simply be another rainstorm for most places east of the Appalachian Mountains. Part of me can see the snowstorm possibility, but I want to cover my butt on this one as I can always change to an all-snow event if needs be. I see no need to HYPE people up, though, this far out as there are far too many variables yet to be considered to produce a perfect I-95 snowstorm. I have realized how hard it will be to get an I-95 snowstorm this year due to multiple factors I see developing again, and I must admit that we are going to have to "thread the needle" if we want to see a big snowstorm affect that region this winter season. So it's definitely something to watch, and I will be sure to keep an eye on it, but for right now, I see the January 2nd Blizzard possibility as being nothing but a simple rainstorm for the I-95 corridor when the rubber meets the road. Well that's about all I have for now, so hope ya'll have a great rest of your afternoon and had a very Merry Christmas yesterday, and I will talk to ya'll later! This is Junior Meteorologist (Storm Tracker) Kyle Elliott reporting for the AKStormtracker Forecasting Center!