Wednesday, January 14, 2009

An Interesting Phenomenon May Occur Tomorrow!

Hello this is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott...and before I discuss the weather I want to mention a few things first. First, I am sorry that I have not been posting nearly as regularly as I had been in December and November. And second, the reason for this is because I became ill with a stomach virus at the end of December and the first two days of January...and I really could not do much of anything for that time period. I then got better for about 3 days, but then I picked up a severe cold of some sort as a result of my immunity being low in the dead of winter...and I am just starting to feel slightly better today. So that is the reason I have not been posting, but I will try to post more frequently at least for the next week or so. Now, on to the weather. First, a clipper system will affect the region from tonight into tomorrow, spreading snow from southern and central Ohio through central and northern Pennsylvania tonight. The center of the storm will track along the Mason/Dixon line and end up off the Jersey Coast by tomorrow morning. As the storm hits the coast, a band of enhancement will occur across NYC and Long Island up into Connecticut, RI, and MA tomorrow morning. In this area, a general 3-5 inches of snow will occur with amounts up to 7 inches in spots in the enhanced band. Farther west across central and northeastern Pennsylvania, a general 1-3 inch accumulation will be found with 2-5 inches possible farther west throughout the mountains of western Pennsylvania. In far southern and southeastern Pennsylvania, only a few snow showers to possibly an inch of snow will occur as the snow will have a tough time developing south of the PA Turnpike and east of Interstate 81. Low and behold, though, an interesting phenomenon may occur in that area tomorrow after the Clipper goes past as the latest run of both the NAM and WRF assimilated radar have picked up a very narrow but intense band of Lake-Effect snowfall that may develop tomorrow afternoon and evening. According to the WRF, the band would stretch from northwestern Pennsylvania down through State College, Carlisle, and right into the heart of York County, PA. If the model is right, the band will even make it the whole way down to Bel Air, MD, where it will pick up even more enhancement from the Chesapeake Bay...and will then stretch the whole way down possibly to Ocean City, MD. Now of course the exact timing and placement of the band is unknown at this point but, if the WRF is right, central York County, PA, could pick up a 2-5 inch snowfall accumulation at some point during the late afternoon tomorrow. This, granted, is still a little hard for me to believe at this point, but I would not doubt if it happens and I see how it could happen. So, even if you don't get something out of the Clipper tonight, keep your eyes open for the possibility of isolated but VERY intense Lake-Effect snow squalls setting up across the region late tomorrow afternoon. I will post later updates on this situation as the evening progresses and the WRF runs out again at 00z tonight. For now, though, that's about all I have...so hope ya'll have a great rest of your afternoon and evening and I'll talk to ya'll later tonight or tomorrow afternoon! This is Junior Meteorologist (Storm Tracker) Kyle Elliott reporting for the AKStormtracker Forecasting Center!

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