A Week Of Wild Weather...4 Snowstorms In 7 Days!

Hello this is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott with a weather pattern discussion...and there is much to talk about during this upcoming work week as there could very well be 4 storms in 7 days that affect the Mid-Atlantic, snow-starved regions of the country between Monday, January 26th, and Friday, January 30th. Before I go into the details of next week's forecast, though, I first want to give some background information as to how this whole forecast is going to set up. First, after a very warm day yesterday in the Middle Atlantic states with highs varying from the upper 40s to lower 60s from northern PA to southern Maryland respectively, a cold front pushed through that region this morning with snow flurries and snow showers as far south as northern Maryland. As that cold front continues to push southward throughout this afternoon and tomorrow, it will stall out across the Tennessee River Valley back through the southern Plains. As a tight temperature gradient sets up on either side of the boundary, waves of low pressure will ride eastward along that boundary throughout the week. As that occurs, snow and wintry precipitation will break out from the central and southern Plains throughout the Ohio River Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coastline. The first of these waves will eject eastward tomorrow afternoon through Monday morning as coatings to an inch or two of snowfall will occur anywhere from central and southern Iowa eastward through Indiana and Ohio into central and western Pennsylvania. East of the mountains, only snow showers will fall from D.C. to Baltimore to Philadelphia, and most places there will be lucky to see anything more than a coating of snowfall to an insolated inch in the higher elevations. After that shortwave moves quickly out into the Atlantic Ocean by Monday afternoon, a much stronger batch of precipitation with an associated low pressure system will gather in the south central Plains by Monday evening. A wide, possibly intense, band of snowfall should move across the country from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon, possibly giving places like Baltimore and Washington there first significant snowfall of the season. 3-6 inches of snow could fall from that shortwave, but details are still somewhat foggy at this point. Depending on the strength of that shortwave, precipitation will either come to a close for a time Wednesday afternoon and evening across the Mid-Atlantic states or will continue as an elongated period of moderate snowfall right through Thursday afternoon. If the shortwave Tuesday night and Wednesday is stronger, precipitation will stop for a time Wednesday evening. If the shortwave is weak, the third wave will suck most of the precipitation into it as just an elongated area of light to moderate snowfall will continue to affect the Mid-Atlantic states for upwards of 30-40 hours straight. After a light 2-4 inches of snowfall Tuesday night through Wednesday, a third wave will ride eastward along the front. If the 6z GFS model is right, precipitation will start as snow but quickly change to rain across the I-95 corridor up to about I-80 in central Pennsylvania. I am leaning toward that solution now just because of what's happened to far this year, but the 12z GFS cannot be ignored as it has upwards of 7-10 inches across the entire I-95 corridor from D.C. to Philadelphia and into southern and central Pennsylvania between Tuesday night and Thursday afternoon. After the third shortwave moves through on Thursday, models really begin to vary as some suggest a fourth, grand-finally type storm will move up the coast on Friday/Saturday, will others suggest just a few snow showers will push through with a cold front. Right now, my thinking is that the shortwaves during the middle portion of the weak will remain on the weaker side with 2-4 inches of snow with each wave...and then that a big storm roars up the coast toward Friday and Saturday. A major trough will develop along the east coast toward the end of the week, and I think with all the energy still meandering about through the Eastern part of the country combined with a clipper system coming southeastward across the Great Lakes, a major storm should get cut out along the Eastern Seaboard with possible major amounts of snowfall along the entire I-95 corridor from D.C. to Boston. Now having said all of this, models have practically no agreement at this point as to exactly when and where these shortwaves will exactly move this coming week, so trying to pin down snowfall amounts at this point is frankly senseless. All I can now say is that the I-80 corridor snow/rain line from December is going to probably now be the Mason/Dixon line. So that's about all I have for now, so hope ya'll have a great rest of your weekend and I'll talk to ya'll later tomorrow or more likely on Monday! This upcoming week, snow-lovers in the I-95 corridor, will probably be your best chance at snow so far this winter season. This is Junior Meteorologist (Storm Tracker) Kyle Elliott reporting for the AKStormtracker Forecasting Center!