A Good Long Range Forecast...In A Way...

Hello this is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott with a weather pattern discussion...and there is much to talk about today. So, without any fooling around, I'm going to dive right into things today. First, I want to touch on that forecast I made way back yonder about 2 weeks ago when I said that the last extensive period of cold air would break on February 25th. Maybe it was just shear coincidence, but today (February 25th) was the day the cold air broke. Granted, I was confident in my forecast that the cold air would end around the end of February, foreseeing February 25th as the day...but I had no idea I would end up being right on in my thoughts....kind of.... The reason I say kind of is because, well, yes...today was the day the extensive cold (that below 40 degrees from Interstate 80 on south) that has been plaguing the region ended...but no, this will now probably not be the last period of extensive cold weather. There is a chance it could be due to how the models show one 40-50 degree day splitting up the next two cold airmasses...but I have my doubts as to whether or not that 40-50 degree will actually happen between them. So all I know is that this time, for only about the 2nd or third time this winter, a long range forecast of mine of more than 10 days out turned out to be pretty much correct on the money. Granted, there will be many more cold shots before the warmth comes for good...but as for now, my long range forecast stands as a success. Anyways, on to other things...the most pressing of which is the possibility of a snowstorm for the Eastern Seaboard this coming Saturday, February 28th, or Sunday, March 1st. Let me come right out of the gun and say that I think this snowstorm will NOT...I repeat, NOT...happen. I think there will be a storm that develops in the Southeastern states...but I do not think it will produce a snowstorm for the snow-starved areas along the Eastern Seaboard. My original thinking about 2 days ago was that this storm would head up into the Lakes and produce another rainstorm along the East Coast...but now I have gone to the other extreme and think that the storm will head out to sea south of a line from Nashville, TN, to Charleston, WV, to Atlantic City, NJ. At this point, the 18z Nam, DGEX, and GFS all show some sort of a snowstorm from the Appalachians eastward from D.C. to NYC...but I'm not biting yet given the difficulty of ever getting cold enough surface air for snow around this time of year and the trend of the winter so far. I need to analyze conditions further before I offer an explanation as to why I think the storm will head out to sea...but from having just looked at the forecast models briefly, I can quite confidently say the storm will not catch the cold air coming into the region in time to be drawn up the coast. I think the first rainstorm on Friday will sweep off the coast as a cold front, erasing any signs of an East Coast trough setting up for the next storm on Saturday and Sunday. The next storm will then develop on the tail of the front in the Southeast, but will then head right out to sea south of where the cold air sets up along or just south of Baltimore and Washington. That is my best explanation at this point, but further explanation will follow on Friday evening. After that storm goes by, it will be cold across the Eastern portion of the country for the first 2-3 days of March before a brief 1-2 day warm up ensues. After that, it appears one last arctic high pressure system will plague the region from March 6th to the 9th before spring-like weather surges into the region for good. So that's the way I see things now, but of course Friday evening will probably bring a slightly different tale at least in some aspects of this forecast. That's all I have for now, though, so hope ya'll have a great rest of your evening and I'll talk to ya'll Friday! This is Junior Meteorologist (Storm Tracker) Kyle Elliott reporting for the AKStormtracker Forecasting Center!