Sniffing Out Spring...Is Winter Over?

Hello this is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott with a weather pattern discussion...and I want to jump right off the bat by discussing two quick things. First, I want to answer my question in my title of this post; and that answer is clearly "NO!" Second, I want to remind ya'll that in my last written post about a week ago, I told everyone that I am now going into a kind of "spring mode" where I am more or less going to sniff out warm weather and thunderstorms instead of snowstorms. So, having said that, I want to take a considerable amount of time here discussing the latest forecast models and my take on what's ahead for folks in the eastern part of the country. As any of you who live south of central New York State have probably noticed the past two to three days, a bitterly arctic airmass that was over the eastern half of the nation around midweek has totally gotten blow away by in some cases record warmth the past two days. Take for example my home town here in York, PA. On Thursday, the temperature managed to reach a meager high of 21 degrees...20 degress below normal for this time of the year. Two days later and also today, the temperatures soared to record levels of 59 degrees for both yesterday and today as the high was almost 20 degrees ABOVE normal. Totally incredible! So obviously, the snowstorm of last week that socked Philadelphia with 8 inches of snow and parts of Lancaster with over a foot has long since been forgotten as spring-like weather has taken a stronghold on those same areas of the country. So, seeing how cold it was January for the entire Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions and how cold the period of February 3rd to the 5th was, one might think that we may be having a very early spring south of I-80 running from Ohio to PA. I am here to tell you, though, that that thinking will end up being somewhat wrong. Now notice, I did not say VERY wrong, but only SOMEWHAT wrong. By this, I mean that the coldest air of the season is long gone in the eastern part of the country, but I still see one more cold shot with temperatures ranging from highs in the 20s in NY state to 20s and 30s in PA to 30s and 40s south of the Mason/Dixon line from Baltimore to northern NC state before this winter fully comes to a close. I still think we are going to be seeing a very early spring, but there should be one more 8-12 days cold shot from February 14th to the 25th before things finally lift for good. Of course, March will see some cold days, but no long, harsh extended periods of cold weather that has been seen in January. Having said all this, let me go on to my thoughts on the upcoming weather pattern. First, I want to say that winter will return north of a line from Norfolk, VA, to Asheville, NC, to Nashville, TN, to Little Rock, Arkansas, to Tulsa, OK. In the short term, a cold front has pushed southward to about the Baltimore/Washington areas this evening and will only manage to bring marginally cooler air to the Mid-Atlantic region from PA southward tomorrow that what occured today. Temperatures Monday should range from the upper 30s to lower 40s across northern PA to around 50 degress in southern areas of the state to 50s and 60s from Baltimore to southern Virginia respectively under mostly sunny skies. Clouds will increase Monday night as the cool front retreats northward to around central NY state. On Tuesday, temperatures will be about 5-7 degrees warmer on average in those above mentioned areas than they were on Monday. By Tuesday evening, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms will break out across Arkansas and Louisiana and trudge northeastward during the day on Wednesday. This will be the nation's first notable severe weather outbreak of the season as I'm sure we'll be seeing many reports of damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes by the time this cold front pushes off the East Coast by Thursday morning. Until then, expect Wednesday to remain very warm and humid across the entire eastern third of the nation as 60s will make it as far north as I-80 in PA and Ohio by Wednesday afternoon. I would not even rule out a 70 degree reading as far north as Baltimore and northern Maryland if the warm front advances slightly farther northward than currently forecasted. After that, the cold front will blow through the Mid-Atlantic with a line of rain and heavy thunderstorms Wednesday night and early Thursday, ushering in cooler air for the region on Thursday and Friday. Both Thursday and Friday will see temperatures similar to either Monday or Tuesday of this week, as both days should see highs ranging from the 40s in PA to 50 along the Mason/Dixon line to 50s and 60s from Baltimore to North Carolina respectively. By the time Friday morning rolls around, the trouble will be brewing once again on the horizon out in the Midwest. This time, a colder storm system will take shape and track eastward along the stalled frontal boundary in central Virginia...possibly delivering increasing clouds to many areas of the Mid-Atlantic by Friday evening. Like all other storms this year, the storm track will be critical as to who sees snowfall across the Mid-Atlantic states on Valentine's Day. Right now, things look good as far as snowfall goes from D.C. to I-80 in Ohio and PA, but I am VERY skeptical as to that forecast at this point. The reason I am so skeptical is because surface temperatures in the 40s and 50s on Friday will have a tough time dropping to 30 degrees Friday night under cloudy skies...and even when the precipitation arrives Saturday morning and afternoon, surface temperatures appear to be too warm to support snowfall even though this time the upper level airmass appears to be plenty cold. So snow-lovers, I really do not see a way that this storm produces snow...at this time, I am going to go with a cold rain for anybody south of the PA Turnpike with possible snow north of I-80. Things may change, but as of now, I think the better chance for snowfall will be around the 18th of February as another, much larger and colder storm appears to take shape and track east from the Midwest around that time period. With even colder air with highs in 20s and 30s across most of the Mid-Atlantic after the Valentine's Storm goes by, the stage may finally be set for a decent, grand fanally type snowfall for the Mid-Atlantic states by the middle to latter portion of the month. At this point, though, all of that is speculation...all I do know is that the next several days through at least Friday will see temperatures above normall for most of the eastern third of the nation before snowfall chances and possible cooler air return for the middle to latter portion of the month. As far as precipitational chances and types are concerned, well, I will be sure to sort out those details later this week after the height of the warmth crashes on Wednesday night. For now, though, that's about all I have; so hope ya'll have a great night and I'll talk to ya'll later this week on either Wednesday or Thursday. Until then, enjoy the warm weather and we'll talk snow later! This is Junior Meteorologist (Storm Tracker) Kyle Elliott reporting for the AKStormtracker Forecasting Center!