Friday, October 16, 2009

Snowfall Map For Rare October Snowfall Tomorrow Through Sunday...

Above is a snowfall map I made of my best guess at who sees some heavy, wet snow tomorrow through Sunday across interior sections of Pennsylvania through New England. I leaned toward the GFS solution at this point instead of the NAM model simply because the current scenario resembles the initialization of the 18z GFS moreso than that of the 18z NAM, but there is still a chance that the snowfall area seen on my map could be moved about 30-40 miles further east. If the storm were to track further offshore and the precipitation back not nearly as far inland as currently forecast by the GFS, then snowfall might be hard to come by in the valleys simply because surface temperatures will be 2-5 degrees higher there than in the mountains. So, if the NAM is right, the mountains will see only a dusting of snow and the valleys merely rain mixed with wet snow...but, if the GFS is right, the snowfall will be one of a heavy, wet variety in the mountains as the valleys see a wind-driven rain. So I'll update again tomorrow when the morning runs of the models come out, but this is my best guess at who sees an early-season snowstorm as of now. I'll post again tomorrow...

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