A Pattern That Bears Close Watching...Storm Alert!

Hello this is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott...and I am posting an update from Florida because of a pattern that I see developing which could be very concerning for a major snowstorm possibility along the Eastern Seaboard. This will probably be the only update that I post while in Florida, but I felt that the situation warranted an update because of the potential that I feel is going to be coming into the Eastern part of the country. There are two major storm possibilies for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast...one around New Year's Day and another around the 5th-7th of January. The NAO is negative and is going to crash even further by the 1st, so the pattern is ripe with an active southern branch El Nino to produce an East Coast Big Daddy sometime in the near future. Originally, I felt that the storm around the 1st of January would go out to sea (for once) and the storm around the 6th would end up being the monster, and part of me still wants to stick with my original theory. Most of the models have a storm on the 1st, but latest guidance is actually splitting the storm into two pieces. Some models want to develop the first piece into a major storm coming up the coast on New Year's Eve day, and others want to develop the second piece into an even bigger storm. Finally, models like the GFS hardly have a storm at all on the latest run...but if one would look at the GGEM's perspective, which develops the second storm, they would be terrified to see a 954 millibar low pressure system sitting 150-200 miles off the New Jersey Coast and the East Coast getting walloped with a snowstorm of historic proportions. I am not sure which model to buy into right now, but I am leaning toward the GFS only because it seems like the first wave will only produce light snows on Thursday, and then the trough will not tilt negatively enough to warrant a major second storm around January 2nd...but I am watching this option carefully. The least likely option to occur, in my opinion, is for the first wave to develop into a major storm as the temperature gradient will not be very tight and the trough rather flat running through the Mid-Atlantic. In my opinion, the second part of the storm will form but will not have time to gather enough moisture to explode into a monster as the moisture will be split between the two storms...but, if the storms are separated by more than a day or two as the GGEM suggests, then its suggested option of a Historic East Coast Snowstorm would have to be monitored very closely and taken very seriously. In my opinion, though, this will not be the major event for the Mid-Atlantic as the storm around the 5th of January looks to be much more potent...but I will say that the situation bears much watching heading into the weekend. If the second storm in the Gulf is able to gather a lot of moisture, and the trough along the Eastern Seaboard takes on a negative tilt, then rapid storm intensification would be imminent and the prospect of a blizzard more than likely along the East Coast. So I will try and update again at all costs sometime during my break in Florida...but if I do not, I just wanted to update and alert everyone as to the possibilities and prospects of what may lie ahead for folks in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast over the next week or two. As of now, there are several options on the table...I believe the big storm will be evaded this weekend until the week after, but things may change as they always do between now and Wednesday or Thursday. So that's about all I have for now, so hope ya'll have a great rest of your evening and I'll try and post later this week if time allows and the situation looks to be turning more threatening. For now, though, my best guess is that the two storms go out to sea and explode too far out into the ocean to affect the coastal areas...but I will admit that this is a very complicated pattern and one that bears close monitoring. Until things become clearer, though, I will take my leave and let the models resolve themselves...and I'll post again if and when I get the chance. Until then, hope ya'll have a great New Year's Eve and enjoy the holiday break! This is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott reporting for the AKStormtracker Forecasting Center!