Storms and Rumors of Storms...

Hello this is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott...and I just wanted to post a written discussion tonight, as I finally have some time to do so, and touch on the upcoming storms and rumors of storms. Instead of simply stating what the models show for the upcoming winter storm possibilities in the east, I am also going to point out what I think may be model errors concerning some of the storms and also give ya'll my opinion on the snowfall possibilities. Before I do that, though, I want to first analyze how my final snowfall map performed for the storm this past Tuesday/Wednesday. Overall, the map was a success as about 75% of the area covered by it was correct in snowfall tallies...but it was somewhat ironic that the 25% of the map that busted was my local area. Anywhere south of a PA/NY border line, I'd have to say the map was mostly a disaster. The 1-3 inch area in central Pennsylvania should have been 3-6 as more cold air dammed down the east side of the mountains along with the initial surge of precipitation being much heavier than anticipated. Also, that 1-3 inch area should have been extended down as far south as the suburbs of Philly and Baltimore as northern Maryland from Parkton to Frederick saw 2-4 inches, and the Lower Susquehanna Valley of Pennsylvania also saw similar amounts. Basically, the icing area that I had in the Roanoke Valley of Virginia up I-81 turned out to be correct, but I should have had a 1-3 inch snow area in most of that same zone as that's what happened before precipitation turned over to ice. And the 1-3 inch area in PA should have been 3-6. Other than those areas, though, the map was a success. Therefore, my overall accuracy for the winter now stands at 2 for 3, but my local accuracy falls to 1 for 3. Not as good as I'd like, but I'm not complaining seeing as how badly I started the winter with that major FAIL of a snowfall map back around Thanksgiving. Anyway, enough dwelling on the past...it's time I moved on to what's ahead.

As I said, there are storms and rumors of storms on the models. The first storm that will affect the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern states is already in the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic as I write this. Even though surface temperatures are brutally cold right now throughout the region, the upper air 850 millibar temperatures are quickly warming into the upper 20s and lower 30s. By the time the precipitation arrives, they will be about 35 degrees, making it far too warm for precipitation to fall as snow. The cold air at the surface, though, will be much harder to kick out, though, as the arctic airmass that's been in place will not simply retreat northward. Instead, temperatures which have already fallen into the lower 20s, colder than anticipated already, will not warm up until late morning/early afternoon tomorrow. Therefore, anybody north and west of the I-95 corridor from the Shenendoah Valley of Virgina through the Piedmont of Pennsylvania into southern New York State could receive an icing event tomorrow morning. Freezing Rain and Winter Weather Advisories have already been posted for areas prone to cold air damming east of the Appalachian Mountains as the cold air in place will become trapped in the valleys and hills tonight. By the time most people wake up tomorrow morning, freezing rain will be falling in the above mentioned areas...as 1/10 to 1/4 inch of freezing rain will fall in most areas before precipitation changes over to rain as warmer surface air finally moves in early tomorrow afternoon. Most places in Virginia will change to plain rain by late morning, but places in Central Pennsylvania through southern NY State will not change until early to mid afternoon respectively. This will not be a major, significant event in all likelihood, but it will cause hazardous travel so please, if you have to be out and about on the roads tomorrow, take it easy and drive with caution. Anyway, that storm will quickly move away from the region by early tomorrow night...and will be followed up by two decent days on Monday and Tuesday. Any icy spots will quickly melt as temperatures range from around 40 degrees in NY State to near 60 in central and southern Virginia by Monday and Tuesday. This warm spell will not last for long, though, as temperatures will once again crash by midweek as a cold front sweeps through the East. A few days ago, models were trying to bring a storm up the coast on the tail end of this front, bringing a blizzard to the Mid-Atlantic...but models have since gone away from that idea as they now want precipitation to simply move off the coast as a strong Canadian high pressure system suppresses it in the southeast. As that is happening, the Clipper storm moving through the Lakes at the same time will be the one to bomb out off the coast now as a snowstorm will be delivered to northern New England around the Wednesday time frame. At the same time, a piece of energy in the southeast will get stuck in the Gulf of Mexico...and that is where things will eventually get interesting. A clipper storm will dive into the northern U.S. around the 17th of December and reach the East Coast by the 19th. Most models want to spread a 2-4 inch swath of snow from Minneapolis to Balitmore and Atlantic City and keep the moisture suppressed in the Gulf of Mexico once again...but this is where I differ in my thinking from the models. Rarely does moisture stay in the Gulf for two straight storms as the Jet Stream and the winds aloft normally pick the moisture up at some point and move it northward. As a result, I personally think this Clipper Storm will grab the moisture in the Gulf and explode a storm system on the coast...providing an unexpected by significant snowstorm for the Mid-Atlantic region through eastern New England. According to the models, this theory is a stretch at this point...but some of them are starting to look more amplified with the trough coming with the Clipper around that time frame...which is the first step to the models coming around to my theory. If my theory is correct, people from Washington, D.C. through Boston, MA, could walk away with a significant 6-12 inch snowstorm...but that's just an idea at this point and far from an official forecast. Honestly, though, the storm's a long ways off yet and much can change...so I don't want to go too in-depth on that one yet as I need to see where the boundaries set up after the Tuesday cold front moves through the region. After that, things will become much clearer...until then, though, stay safe tomorrow as freezing rain will affect the ridge and valley through the piedmont regions before changing to rain in the afternoon. That's about all I have for now as I've rambled long enough, so hope ya'll have a great rest of your night and I'll try to update again tomorrow or Monday with either a video or an early thoughts snowfall map for the storm around the 19th. This is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott reporting for the AKStormtracker Forecasting Center!