A Blockbuster Storm Ahead...This Is Going To Be A Forecasting Nightmare...

Hello this is Kyle Elliott with a post-clipper storm analysis and a look into the blockbuster storm about eight days down the road...and I just want to warn everybody that in my opinion, the storm around the 16th/17th of the month will be a massive, powerful storm that affects much of the eastern half of the country. Now as to who gets the rain and who gets the snow, that will be the part that causes me to have to deal with a forecasting nightmare. The situation surrounding the storm is very complex, and trying to guess exactly what path the storm will take this far out from the event is nearly impossible. My gut instinct and best guess at this point is that the storm takes a track up the Appalachians and makes for a mild, heavy rainstorm from the Piedmont to the coast with heavy snow in the Ohio Valley to Pittsburgh and Buffalo...but most models and many pro meteorologists disagree with that theory right now. There are at least 3 reasons why I believe the storm will not result in an East Coast Big Daddy, though...and only one reason why I think the East Coast storm would be possible. First, though, the three reasons: the first reason is simply a use of logic and taking a pattern seen on the models and applying it to this storm. The models this year have been biased too far south and east on storm track even up to 2 days from the event. If the models are showing this storm riding up the East Coast now and only marginal cold air in place this far out from the event, in my mind its almost a guarantee that by the time the storm gets here the track will be up the Appalachians and result in heavy rain and flooding along the coast and through the Piedmont. And part of that is the 2nd reason I believe the heavy snow possibility in the I-95 corridor will NOT be recognized: the fact that there is only going to be marginal cold air in place. Over the next several days, the cold is going to significantly relax in the East as warming westerly winds blow through the Plains late this weekend and into the East by Tuesday/Wednesday of this coming week. Understand that we are not going into a "warm spell" per say in the East, but temperatures will be too warm to support snow by Wednesday. From I-90 southward, temperatures should rise above freezing and even rise near the 45 degree mark from the Mason/Dixon line southward. Somehow, the models bring the cold air back just in time to catch the big storm coming up from the Gulf of Mexico...therefore giving everybody a big snowfall from the mountains to the coast. I do not see how this can happen, unless the models are on to something with a clipper coming southward and bringing the cold back into the East just before the arrival of the monster storm. If the clipper materializes, and a strong Canadian high pressure system builds into northern New England and locks in as the storm comes northward, then a heavy snowfall would be recognized in the I-95 corridor. As you can see, though, there are numerous factors that must come together perfectly for the storm to develop and end up being a huge snow producer for the cities along the Eastern Seaboard. In my opinion, these factors have about a 20% chance only of coming together right now as even if the clipper does come through, it does not appear to be a strong one. Therefore, the cold air that temporarily does come into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic would not be able to hold its ground as a storm of the magnitude that I am thinking we'll see would boot the cold air right out of the way with ease. Finally, the 3rd and final reason I do not see this storm materializing into an East Coast Big Daddy is because of its position over the Southeast. The storm forms in the western Gulf and moves due north into Louisiana...but then the models magically take it from that position straight to the North Carolina coast and then straight north up the coast again to right off the Delmarva. To make matters even worse, the models then take it due east from there again. So my question is, how do we go from a storm moving north, then east, then north, then finally east again? As you can see, using this logic would tell me that the models are missing something and are not handling the situation properly yet. There are too many factors around and variables in place that must come together just right...and the models are simply having trouble agreeing on a track this far out from the storm. While yes, things could change from my thinking, I see it as very doubtful that they will as the reasons I have stated above make it very hard for me to believe that another heavy Megalapolitan snowstorm could come to fruition. I have been looking into this pretty in-depth over the past few days...and using basic principles of meteorology and the pattern of the models this year, I have drawn the only conclusion I see possible at this point: and that is that the storm ends up being an Apps Runner. If the cold would not be retreating this coming week, things would be a different story. The fact is, though, that the cold is retreating and rarely do the I-95 cities see a heavy snowstorm under marginal circumstances. Having said all this, though, I do want to touch on the 1 reason that makes me wonder whether the storm could potentially end up on the coast. This reason is not supported meteorologically like my three reasons above...its simply a pattern I believe I have noticed and one that seems very provocative for the case that we see at least a few more East Coast snowfalls this year. The forecasting models, like I said in my first reason, have had a pattern this year...but this is also another pattern I have noticed, speaking of patterns.

The pattern, one which I have not heard any pros talk about but one which I believe may actually hold some water in this theory, is that around the mid portion to late half of the past three months there has been a storm come up the East Coast. If you remember, back on October 15th and 16th there was talk of a rare, early season snowfall that was possible in the Mid-Atlantic region. When all was said and done, State College had nearly eight inches of snow...and even places just north of Baltimore reported around an inch of snow, though I saw nothing here in southern PA. My point is, though, that the storm tracked just off the coast...and even though most places saw rain, it was a very cold rain and would have been a heavy snow had it been one or two months later. Then, right around Thanksgiving, there was talk of another early season snow possibility throughout the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern regions of the U.S. Once again, it remained in the form of rain for my area and most other areas...but the clipper did explode into a storm off Long Island which road into the Gulf of Maine and rapidly intensified. Fast forward about 3-4 weeks later, and who could possibly forget the Great Blizzard of 2009 from December 18th-20th? This time, everybody in the Piedmont to the coast from Virginia to Massachusetts saw a blockbuster snowstorm as many records were shattered and 1-2 foot snowfall amounts were common through the Megalopolis. Now, here we are a month later...and we're back to dealing with a major storm possibility in the heart of winter around January 17th, the coldest time of the year for many. If the pattern above that I believe has materialized continues throughout the rest of the winter season, then this storm should technically end up on the East Coast as all storms around this time frame of the past 3 months have done just that. Another thing I have noticed is that the second half of the months seem to have been much more active precipitation wise than the first halves...with the exception of December. So, having said this, I am not completely sure that the storm will end up in the Lakes...but meteorologically speaking, more factors in my opinion point to that eventual track than point against it. I am only saying that if this pattern continues, then we will most likely see an East Coast snowstorm...but I would definitely not go out at this time and say that's what will happen. I only want to alert everyone to what I see and the possibility that, while unlikely at this point, another East Coast monster occurs this upcoming weekend. So that's my thoughts on this whole situation as it stands now...sorry I rambled so long, but I had a lot of thoughts and insights into this thing that I thought might be beneficial food for thought to chew upon over the next several days as models come closer to honing in on a track for this thing. And, on a side note, I do believe that February will also bring a major storm near the middle to end of the month...but that is just a thought and one that I will have to examine when the times draws nearer. For now, though, we have a storm to deal with this upcoming weekend...and I will continue to post further updates this weekend and throughout the coming week as to how I see the storm taking shape. Finally, now, I want to write a quick analysis of how my final snowfall map performed with the Clipper that crossed the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions the past several days.

In my opinion, I would give myself an A on this storm as nearly all of my map was a success. I would say that at least 80-85% of people saw what I thought they would from this storm...and my local forecast for southern Pennsylvania came to fruition also. South and East of I-81, I predicted 1-3" from Harrisburg to Gettysburg to York, Lancaster, and Philadelphia. I saw just over an inch here at my house, and most reports were between 1 and 2 inches west of the Susquehanna River and between 1 and 3 inches the closer you went to the suburbs of Philadelphia. In Maryland, a band of enhancement put most places between 1.5 and 3.5" of snowfall...hence realizing my idea that some isolated 3-4" amounts could fall there from a band of enhancement. Even into Virginia, most places saw a trace to 2 inches of snowfall...and many in New Jersey to NYC saw 1-2" of snow. Further westward, I would have to say my biggest bust areas were across west-central PA and southern Kentucky. While I said most places of western PA would see 2-4" and some did, most places along the Turnpike from Somerset to Bedford saw about an inch or two. Surrounding those areas, 2-4" amounts were recognized...but right in that corridor only about an inch or two fell. In southern Kentucky, a trace to 2 inches was common instead of the 3-5" I originally thought as the southern part of the storm was an underachiever until it reached Maryland and places around the Chesapeake Bay. Further north, though, nearly everybody saw the 3-5" I was expecting with many places even getting 6-7 inch amounts as I thought would happen. Overall, my map was a great success this time as I am now 4 for 5 overall and 3 for 5 locally...giving myself an overall accurracy rating of around 70% thus far this winter. So I hope everybody enjoyed there snow as a huge portion of the country got in on the action...now hunker down for a few days of cold, and then get ready for a warm-up as I prepare for a long, challenging week of forecasting ahead as the storm this coming weekend comes closer and closer. Well, that's all I have for now, so hope ya'll have a great rest of your evening! I will post scenario maps in about a half hour as a visual aid to this lengthy discussion...and then I'll talk to ya'll tomorrow. This is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott reporting for the AKStormtracker Forecasting Center!