Morning Thoughts And An Updated Map...

Hello this is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott...and here's my thoughts for the morning on the January 17th storm...

1) I can still see the outside chance of how we get a snowstorm for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southeastern New England. If the original arctic high I was talking about gets more entrenched and holds the clipper off for a day or so, then enough cold air might filter down into the storm to produce a narrow swath of heavy snow. Also, another way this could happen is nearly the 180 degree opposite. If the cilpper system moves even faster than the GFS...and the storm in the Gulf is modeled to move too quickly by a day or so...then the second cold high pressure system that comes down behind the Clipper, which in my opinion might be stronger than the first, would provide enough cold air for a decent snowstorm.

2) I can more clearly see the Apps Runner to coastal transfer solution right now, though. Unless the models are off on system placement by several hundred miles and off by over a day on timing, then it's going to be hard to get a snowstorm. Even minor shifts in the placement of the Canadian clipper system and storm in the Gulf are not going to be enough to get a major snowstorm. I could see how we'd get ice, but not snow. Even if the clipper is delayed, the arctic high pressure will still not get a good enough chance to establish itself...as the Gulf Storm moves too slowly in accordance with everything. If the Gulf Storm were to move much more quickly, as the GFS suggested two or three days ago, then it might be able to catch the original cold sliver that the first arctic high produces, and give some people a good snow. In the endgame, though, I see the freezing rain/rain solution as being the best as I just find it hard-pressed that the 850's are cold enough for snow this go around. In my opinion, like I said, Apps Runner to Coastal Transfer seems to be the best solution at this point, and my map reflects that thought. Keep in mind, though, that I'm not ruling out that my original theory of a pure Apps Runner still might come to fruition. More updates later...