A Rain Threat That Can't Be Ignored!

Hello this is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott...and I am going to let the 29th storm be right now and focus on the situation at hand. The models continue to jump back and forth with solutions for that storm, so I'm just going to stick with my guns right now and get back to discussion with that storm either tomorrow or Tuesday. Anyway, the more pressing concern at this moment is the possibility of very heavy rains and flooding across the Mid-Atlantic, Appalachians, and Northeastern parts of the country today and tomorrow. A powerful storm system will track near to Chicago today and wind up in southeastern Canada by tomorrow. As warm, unstable air is drawn far northward, heavy rains will break out across the regions mentioned above by this afternoon. Due to a generally slow movement of the storm system, the rain will linger in any given area for around 8-12 hours. As a result of this slow movement and moisture-laden content of the atmosphere, rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches will be common in a huge area. On the eastern slopes of the mountains and again in the northeast, rainfall amounts could even approach or exceed 3 inches...especially in the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia and the northeastern/northern parts of Pennsylvania. Amounts of three inches could also be realized in parts of southeastern New England, too. With the ground still partially frozen in many areas, rain will simply run off and will not be absorbed as fast as it is coming down. With creeks and streams already somewhat high to to last week's rain, flooding will be a concern in many places as low-lying areas near or on creeks or streams should keep a careful watch out for these rains.

The other aspect of this storm that some may overlook is the potential for a squall line of drenching thunderstorms that crosses the mountains early tomorrow morning and drops up to an inch of rain in 20-30 minutes. If this line materializes, then places from I-80 in Pennsylvania southward...and east of I-81 in PA...could be dealing with a brief intensification of the storms as temperatures from that line south and eastward will, in my opinion, reach the lower 60s by morning. Temperatures that hold in the 40s around nightfall will suddenly skyrocket overnight as a warm push of air will surge northward east of the mountains on southerly winds. This will allow for a rapid increase in temperatures, and the added instability will lead to potential for even heavier rains out of any thunderstorms that do develop. My guess is that there could be an isolated report of wind damage from Maryland southward with any severe storm that may develop, but those reports should be spotty as heavy rain will be the main threat from the storms. Having said all this, I am going to put out a rainfall map of where I think the heaviest rains will fall...and outline the potential area for thunderstorms which may lead to locally heavier amounts of rainfall. The map will be out in about a half hour or less, so look forward to that everyone and I'll talk to ya'll soon! If you live in an area that is prone to flooding, please take precautions and move to the highest level of your home is flooding occurs. This is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott reporting for the AKStormtracker Forecasting Center.