A Difficult Pattern To Forecast, But One Which Is Loaded With Potential!

Hello this is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott...and the next week or two is going to bring with it some of the most difficult weather to forecast that I have experienced in several years now. Let me start out by explaining what's complicating things so much.

1) The block that's been sitting over Nova Scotia and the Canadian Maritimes is crumbling and breaking down. On the same token, though, the Greenland Block is still intact. So, we no longer see the block in the Maritimes that has been suppressing storms south of New England, but we still have the Greenland Block which should techincally give a good shot at snow up and down the entire East Coast from northern Virginia through Maine. The problem is, though, that the pattern has been influenced so much by that section of the Polar Vortex that displaced itself in an anomalous location over eastern Canada north of Maine that the storm coming Monday and Tuesday will actually be an all-rain event south of the Mason/Dixon line. Normally, though, it could still bring snow that far south. In this pattern where one of the two blocks is breaking down, though, thing's are different.

2) The fact of the matter is this: we are not dealing with just one storm coming up the coast. A primary low will track into the central/northern Appalachians and southern Great Lakes on Monday before secondary development takes over the East Coast. To make matters even worse, energy that is going to hang back in the Four Corners region and wait for a boost from moisture from the Pacific is going to get involved into the mix come Thursday of next week. Due to the first storm getting trapped off the New England Coast and the trough abruptly stalling just offshore, the new storm could quickly turn up the coast and catch leftover energy from the first one that's still meandering over the Northeast and just offshore.

3) The Polar Vortex that has collapsed over northern Maine/southeastern Canada has gone back to a semi-normal position. With this storm winding itself up in New England, though, the Polar Vortex is once again going to be pulled down possibly even farther than before as it comes crashing into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. With all of this energy floating around and a huge blocking high south of Greenland...the trough on the coast will have no problem taking on a negative tilt as energy is coming down from the northwest while the blocking high provides a flow from the southeast. You do the math: a negatively tilted trough should form. The complicating factor comes in, though, in when, where, and how negative that trough becomes. If it waits longer to tilt, and trough aligns itself farther east, than all precipitation could stay offshore. If the trough aligns itself where the GFS suggests, though, then New England could get a prolonged, Mega-Storm. If the 18z DGEX is right, though, and the storm winds itself up farther south due to a block that's stronger and a trough that quickly turns negative, then southern New England and the snow-weary Mid-Atlantic regions could once again see a major snowstorm. As you can see, things are very confusing.

So what's my take on this? Personally, I am focusing currently on the Monday/Tuesday event alone and will then evaluate the possibilites and implications of a potentially powerful Mid-Atlantic and/or New England snowstorm for the end of next week. At this time, though, I am leaning toward the GFS's solution on the late-week storm as I believe it will be a New England special due to model's over-estimation of the block once again. That's up for debate, though. For the Monday/Tuesday storm, I am leaning toward the GFS's solution, both on track and temperature. I think an axis from Chicago, to Detroit, to central NY State between Syracuse and Binghamton will see the best snows from the initial event. I believe the primary will track up to Lake Erie...possibly crossing the border into Canada...before secondary formation occurs somewhere off the East Coast between Georgia and the Delmarva. As for the initial event, though, the battleground area appears to be Pennsylvania into New York City. The latest 00z NAM model wants to keep anybody north of the PA Turnpike practially all snow and sleet, while the GFS says a big NO to that idea by bringing mostly all rain and freezing rain to that region. As of now, I believe the GFS is right as the warmer solution would seem more plausible with a primary storm track into the Lakes. If we get some Cold Air Damming, then things may change...but as of now, I'm going to say an all-rain event from Mason/Dixon line on southward with a nasty mix of sleet/freezing rain/and plain rain from the Mason/Dixon line to the PA/NY border. North of the PA/NY border should stay all snow...and snow may actually be the pre-dominant precipitation type as far south as I-80 in Pennsylvania. In my opinion, there could be upwards of a tenth to a quarter inch of freezing rain in the mountains of western MD and PA, but a primarily rain event from take places south and east of I-81 and south of the PA Turnpike. Chicago: you'll see your snow with a likely 4-8" there. Detroit: you'll see your snow, too, with at least 3-6" occuring there. Albany, you should see your snow with 2-5", possibly more, occuring there too. That's about all of the cities I'm willing to give accumulation forecasts for at this point as the pattern is one which is very complex and can change on a dime.

For now, I am going to stick with the map I made the other night as the overall idea seems pretty spot-on at this point. I will adjust that map on Monday as I make my final storm forecast map with actual forecast amounts, but as of now, the map stays the way it is.

Finally, in my opinion, the "pattern changing" storm that everybody has been talking about is actually NOT the one late next week. Models have been extremely consistent for almost 5 days now in showing a storm around the 2nd/3rd of March...I believe THAT is the pattern changer. Let me explain. For the past month or more, artic highs have been waiting in the pipeline and have cruised down into the eastern U.S. and southeastern Canada from the polar regions. This has caused the anomalous cold to remain entrenched in the East, and has set the stage for many a historic snow event. After the storm on the 3rd, though, it appears to me that the one last high coming quickly in behind that is the final one in the pipeline. There seems to be no highs behind that one, and that one, instead of heading toward southeastern Canada, actually heads for Bermuda where it sets up shop. This may all change as it is over 10 days away, but I am fairly convinced that around the 7th of March, warm air may come flooding into the east at least temporarily due to this pattern change. I do not think, though, that that warm air will come in without a major storm to change things up: hence the March 3rd storm. I am quite concerned, even at this early stage of the game, that this may end up being another block-buster of a storm for the Mid-Atlantic...and probably the Northeast also this time around. I don't want to say more about it right now as the events on the table this coming week present enough issues to deal with. I did, though, want to give everyone that "heads up" in order to make you aware of the fact that there may be yet one more big storm waiting in the wings before spring arrives. For now, though, I've lingered too long...so that's all I have for this evening, but I'll get either a fresh video or snow map up here tomorrow. Have a good one folks, and sleep well tonight! This is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott reporting for the AKStormtracker Forecasting Center.