For The Mid-Atlantic, The One To Watch Is Still Ahead...

Hello this is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott...and sorry I haven't posted on here for a few days especially when a huge storm is affecting the northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic states, but I've been really busy studying and observing the storm itself. Apologies also for not putting out a snowfall map for Thursday 6 PM through Friday 10 PM...just didn't get around to it. Also, computer's been down here last night as winds were howling at 50-60 MPH with moderate snow...so all of these reasons led to my not posting on here for awhile. Anyway, I'm going to give a very brief synopsis of the storm as I'm kind of disappointed with the small snowfall amounts here in southern PA after so much was promised from the model runs 4 days ago...so I'm not going to linger on the storm too long. Anyway, basically, we saw a Category 2 Snowicane come ashore in CT last night with pressures as low as 971mb, which is absolutely incredible. Heavy snows fell in New Jersey, NYC, New York State, and Pennsylvania last night and continue right into this morning. Even now, heavy snow bands continue to plague southern CT, northeastern PA, and northern NJ with some heavy bursts of snow. An incredible storm, winds gusted up to 70-80 MPH in many areas, Boston and places in eastern New England saw 6" of RAIN, and areas in northern NJ and northeast PA saw 25" of snowfall or more. With all of the howling winds, drifts up to 3-5' were common in spots. In my backyard, I saw a meager 3" of snow with some drifts up to 8-10"...but overall, most measurements outside of drifting were between 2 and 4", so I'm going to go with 3" for my backyard. This now puts me at 71.5" of snow for the season, and we have a mere 7" of snow to go before the record for York County falls. Personally, I believe we will shatter that record come March 3rd...as the next storm is a Mid-Atlantic special. In my opinion, I believe all models are too far south and east with the storm, and the latest GFS and 00z Euro from last night have the best solutions thus far. DGEX has to be disregarded as it is out of league with all other models, and it doesn't make sense that this storm would simply run out to sea. The pattern is one which sucks storms up the East Coast and traps them somewhere right along the Eastern Seaboard...so an out-to-sea solution makes no sense. The latest GFS which is currently running supports this thinking too, as it even brings heavy snowfall as far north as eastern New England, Boston, and downeast Maine. I mentioned this storm about 5-6 days ago in my last written discussion, and I see no reason to back down on it now. The models have been playing games the last few days with the storm as all models blocked it out-t0-sea just 2 days ago, but now they are all trending north into what I believe is the right solution...yet another snowstorm for the Mid-Atlantic. We need a "finale storm" to kick the winter doldrums out, and this is the storm to do that. Frankly, spring is waiting in the wings and should come in no more than 3 days behind the storm. So you may be seeing a heavy snowstorm on Wednesday with 50-55 degree temperatures by Saturday or Sunday of next week. Just my opinion at this point. In the end, I believe we will see a storm take a Benchmark track once again with the heaviest snows running from the I-81 corridor in western VA to southern NY state...and points southeastward to the I-95 cities of D.C., Philly, Baltimore, and New York. In that corridor, I am currently thinking another doosy of a snowstorm is possible with 12" amounts easily possible in spots. This may seem like hype being 5 days out from the storm, and I may end up being wrong...but this is the best solution as I see it now simply because the block remains in tact, and it will do so until about the 5th of March. Until that date, storms should take a BM track instead of going out to sea. Why should this storm act any differently than the last 5 or 6 that we've seen? My answer to that question is it shouldn't, hence why I think another major snowstorm is lurking for the Mid-Atlantic. I've gotta look into the storm a little further before I go into detail about the highest snowfall amounts and where I think they'll occur, but I do plan to put out a first thoughts snowfall map for the storm later today...so stay tuned for that! Until then, stay safe and don't go out if you don't have to today as the weather is pretty inhospitable to both man and beast. This is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott reporting for the AKStormtracker Forecasting Center.