Snowstorm To Paralyze The South...And More Long-Range Terror For The Mid-Atlantic!

Hello this is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott...and just a day or two after the Second Blizzard of 2010 that paralyzed D.C., Baltimore, and Philly once again, a new heavy snowstorm will rake the south with paralyzing snowfall by their standards. Nobody will see 15-30" out of the southern storm, but isolated 12-14" amounts may appear in the heaviest of snow bands around the Dallas/Ft. Worth area. Heavy snow broke out this morning in western and north-central Texas and has been pommeling the Dallas area all day long today. Last I checked, Dallas was sitting at well over 7 inches of snow, and places just north and west of the airport were around 10 inches. The snow will continue in north Texas for the next several hours before winding down around 10-11 PM Central Standard Time. After leaving a path of 5-9 inches with locally upwards of a foot in north Texas, the snow is now currently and will continue to streak across the northern Louisiana area tonight...and will spread into Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia tomorrow. If cold enough air can work into the mix, northern Florida around the Pensacola area may even see 1-3" of snow...something unprecedented for that area. Currently, winter storm warnings are in effect across nearly all of northern Texas, central and northern Louisiana, central and southern Mississippi and Alabama, and central and northern Georgia. Watches have been issued for practically all of South Carolina into North Carolina in anticipation of accumulating snowfall tomorrow night and Saturday. As a general rule, 2-4" of snow will fall across the warned areas...but I'm thinking personally given the latest model guidance and robust nature of the precipitation shield that that forecast will end up busting very low. In my opinion, most places will see a general 4-7" with actually many 8-10" amounts popping up in central MS and Alabama. The storm has already overachieved in Texas today, and I see no reason why it should stop doing that as there is a very strong low pressure system moving due east across the Gulf of Mexico supplying ample moisture into the storm tonight and tomorrow. Instead of cutting up through the southern states like Alabama and Georgia like most of the storms this year have done, this storm will move due east across the Gulf into northern Florida by tomorrow night, therefore keeping the warm air suppressed to the Gulf and allowing for cold upper and surface air to filter into the storm. With dynamic cooling of the atmosphere occurring with heavy precipitation, snow could quickly accumulate as models continue to output even more moisture than they were showing earlier in the day. A rare event, this storm has the potential to paralyze the south right after 2 historic blizzards paralyzed the Mid-Atlantic states over the past week. It seems winter just will not give up this year, but instead wants to spread the "love" so to speak to everybody!! I can pay witness to the white hell as I have received a total of 45" of snow over the past week in my backyard as my road is practically shut down as piles reach 8-10 feet high on the sides of the road. I even have a pile about 7-8 feet high by my driveway where I shoveled today...absolutely unprecedented, even for this area. D.C., Baltimore, and Philly have all broken their single-season snowfall records with 56, 79.9. and 71.6" respectively for the above cities. I am sitting at 67.5" for the year here in York, PA, while southern parts of my county have received up to 82" this far and northern areas have only seen about 60". Either way you slice it, though, the record of 78.7" for my county looks probable to fall as officially we have 73.5" at my airport this year. With 30% of the winter season left, I see no reason why the fun should stop now...and that's the last topic I want to discuss tonight...

Just as I saw the pattern cutting out to produce an East Coast Snowstorm at the end of January (which dumped 5-15" on MD, VA, and Delaware by the way on January 29), I see the same thing happening again toward the end up February. These past two blizzards have been more of a medium-range affair when I spotted the possibilities, but I once again see long-range trouble brewing between the dates of February 20th and 28th as I see the potential for up to 2-3 chances at getting a storm cutting up the East Coast during that time frame. The pattern, temporarily, is one which blocks storms from coming up the coast as the trough has been aligned about 300-400 miles off the East Coast instead of 30-80 miles off the coast as arctic air is actually so entrenched that the southern branch El Nino has been cut off...but that will only last for awhile in my opinion. I am closely monitoring the storm in the south right now as models seem to sneakily be trending it northward as they cut the northern extent of the snow in Wilmington, NC, yesterday but now have it reaching as far north as Emporia, VA...but I do not think it will make it into the paralyzed regions of the Mid-Atlantic. Anyway, the storms that I see being a much graver concern at this time are the ones getting ready to come into the central and southern West Coast toward the latter portion of the coming 16-day period. It appears as though, after a block sets up across the Maritimes of Canada for the next 5-10 days, that that block will relax a bit as the Polar Vortex will move out and away to the North. At the same time, the Greenland block will remain in place...allowing for yet more chances of crippling snowstorm potentials for the Mid-Atlantic region. As this block relaxes, the southern branch of the Jet will once again get active as I see 2-3 storms getting ready to race into California toward the end of the month. At the same time, though, the northern Jet will remain energized too as cold air will only relax somewhat but will not go away by any means. As this occurs, there is yet more potential for another phase of the Jets as any one of these storms moves across the Southern States toward the end of the month. We are locked into a pattern, and it is going to take at least 1 more major storm in order to break it. Granted, I cannot tell you when and where the heaviest snowfall will occur at this time...but I can tell you that the pattern has not changed yet, and we will see more chances of significant snowstorms in the East over the last 3-4 weeks of winter. Basically, don't let your guard down yet as I recommend staying prepared as there may be yet one more Blizzard of 2010 in the offing in what has been a record-breaking year where frankly anything seems possible. Stay tuned, and keep ya'll updated and apprised of the latest developments as the last few weeks of winter play themselves out. Spring will come again, and the end is in sight in my opinion as I believe that after the first 10-15 days of march, a much different, warmer weather pattern will come quickly into the East. Some say this happens in early March, others say it is delayed till April, but I'm thinking mid-March at this point as I know that the next 2-3 weeks will be anything but spring-like across the East. We'll see what happens, and I'll continue to monitor the models and latest developments. Until then, keep warm, stay safe, and best of luck finding a place to put all that snow that is sitting on the ground currently in practically all of the Mid-Atlantic. There is another chance of a light snowfall for this coming Monday, but I will focus more on that this weekend as there are bigger fish to fry due to the storm in the south and the major storm possibilites coming again toward the end of the month. For now, that's about all I have...so look for more updates as the weekend progresses. This is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott reporting for the AKStormtracker Forecasting Center!