Spring Is Officially Here, But Snow May Yet Be A Possibility...

Hello this is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott...and sorry I haven't posted the last 2 weeks or so, but I've been extremely busy and have taken a sort of "spring break" in order to get out and enjoy the warm, sunny weather that the region has been enjoying as of late. Anyway, as of late, it did in fact get extremely warm and has stayed that way for a while just as I predicted at the beginning of the month. In all honesty, there has not been that much need to post as of late as beautiful, sunny weather has been across the Mid-Atlantic region for the majority of the last 15 days. The highest temperature I saw here in York, PA, during the period occurred yesterday as the high reached 75 degrees. For the past 6 days...and also today...temperatures have reached at the least the 60 degree mark. It was 62 here on Tuesday, 64 on Wednesday, 66 on Thursday, 69 on Friday, 71 on Saturday, and 75 yesterday...and it is currently sitting at 60 degrees at this moment. So, as you can see, a very warm time has been felt across the region as of late. Instead of a cold, snowy March as many experts predicted, the weather has been anything but cold as I thought as El Nino has caused the weather to turn on a dime. I am posting today, though, because I want to issue a warning that people should NOT get used to the weather as of late as one last shot of a minor snowfall may be possible sometime this coming weekend or early next week. Now, if asked the question, "Do you really believe it will snow?" I would answer quite frankly, "NO!" But, let's just say that the possibility is out there for a very late-season snowfall for anybody north of the Baltimore/northern Maryland region. In the meantime, though, a much more spring-like scenario will be taking place today into tomorrow as rain and heavy thunderstorms may be a possibility in the Mid-Atlantic region. I do not expect much severe weather, but small hail, thunder, and tropical downpours could be possible with any heavier thunderstorm. Dew points have risen into the 50s and 60s, so plenty of moisture and instability is available for the storms to feed off of. I do not believe any one location will see more than an inch or two of rain out of this system, but things could turn ugly out there for a time today and this evening as thunderstorms develop with the heating of the day combined with a strong upper-level disturbance that is coming across the southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic today through tomorrow. As this cold pocket aloft gets into the action and combines with strong lift in the upper levels, strong thunderstorms could break out (especially in VA and MD) in any place where the sky clears for awhile late this morning and into the early afternoon hours. I would not be surprised to see anywhere from 5-10 severe thunderstorm warnings issued today, but I do not believe we are going to see a major severe weather outbreak.

After this afternoon, the storm will pull out to sea around Long Island and the Cape tomorrow, giving New England a fairly decent, 1-2 inch rainstorm in spots, especially near the coast. The storm will totally depart from the region by afternoon and early evening on Wednesday, leaving an average airmass in place. Temperatures should range from the 50s and 60s from D.C. to I-80 on Wednesday and Thursday, while 40s will be common north of that area across New England. Things get interesting on Friday through Sunday as a storm system tracking across the southern Plains may meet up with a cold airmass coming down from Canada. If things come together perfectly, a 2-4" snowfall may be recognized somewhere in the central or northern Mid-Atlantic, but a highly doubt that this will happen. The more intriguing storm occurs early next week...but that is too far out at this point and for another update. At this point, I will forecast a cold, 40-degree rain for the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday and Saturday with more chilly weather for the majority of next week. This will definitely be the last shot of cold, though, as all models show a major warm-up by early April and temperatures soaring into the 60s and 70s for the Mid-Atlantic region once again. Personally, I believe April will be an above-average month with cold being confined to the 1st-5th of the month. After that, winter will depart for good as spring-like weather returns and stays for good. What has happened this month has been an anomaly, and I had a feeling one last cold shot would occur as I stated in the beginning of the month. This, in my opinion, will be that last cold shot...and by April, winter will be departing for good. Well, that's about all I have for now, so hope ya'll have a great week and I'll try to post another update on the snow possibilities this weekend and early next week sometime late this week. Until then, enjoy the average temperatures and fairly decent weather. This is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott reporting for the AKStormtracker Forecasting Center!