The Sweet Savor Of Spring Never Tasted So Good!

Hello this is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott...and you can see by the title that yes, indeed, the first warm, sunny days of spring are not lurking far away to the joy of myself and many others in the snow weary Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions of the United States. Before I go in-depth on the pattern change and my thoughts on exactly how warm I believe it is going to become by the weekend and early next week, though, first things first. A few days ago I posted my first thoughts snowfall map for the potential East Coast storm this Wednesday...but it looks as though I miscalculated the extent of the blocking across the Canadian Maritimes. Also, I was thinking that the spoke of energy being shot off the storm east of the Gulf of Maine would phase with the storm coming up the coast from the Gulf of Mexico, producing a negatively tilted trough on the East Coast and yet another snowstorm from D.C. to Boston. At this time, that looks to have been wishful thinking as it does NOT appear that the two systems will phase at this time. Latest 00z NAM guidance just came in about a half hour ago and confirmed this lack of phasing as the disturbances appear to be competing for energy, which allows the coastal storm to come up the coast to a point but then make a right turn out-to-sea. As a result of 2 straight days of model guidance showing the out-to-sea solution, I am left with no choice but to change my forecast for the storm as a lack of phasing, a stronger block in the Atlantic, the lack of an arctic high to the north of New York State, and a failure of the trough on the East Coast to take on a negative tilt all point to a system that will go OTS (out to sea) after it gets to the Delmarva region. Now, in the end, I do believe the block will still be slightly weaker than what the 18z and 00z runs of the models tonight show, and I do believe that a slightly better phasing of the systems will occur...but that will not be sufficient to change the track of the storm enough to produce a moderate to heavy snowstorm in the major cities. Having said that, the Upper Level Low will in fact pull some moisture toward itself from the coastal storm as precipitation will blossom due to a convergence zone between the two storms. Trying to pinpoint exactly where, when, and how much precipitation will actually form between the systems, though, is not very easy to due at this point and will not become very clear until tomorrow afternoon. On the same token, I do believe the best area to see a 3-7" snowstorm at this point appears to be from the western Carolina mountains through central Virginia into the Delmarva and possibly as far north as southern New Jersey. Cape Cod/Boston may also get scraped with a decent blast of snow if this storm phases and the precipitation shield moves due north from just offshore of New Jersey...but that is up in the air at this point as the 18z models hinted at this possibility only to see the 00z NAM lose it tonight. That will become clearer tomorrow as the storm begins to move up the coast and the blocking storm in the North Atlantic can be better analyzed. At this time, though, that is my best guess at the area most susceptible to seeing a decent late-winter snowfall. North of that area, models do hint at a general 1-3, 2-4" snowstorm across northern VA, MD, southern and eastern PA, and central NJ as the upper level disturbance passes through and intensifies. While not a big deal, roads may become slippery and snow may fall moderate for a period of time as I would not be surprised to see 1-4" fall between D.C. and Philly with that storm. At this point in time, I believe conservative is now the best way to go as over-hyping this storm was something I probably did a little too much of in the past few days. Honestly, though, I did in fact believe the stage was set for another nor'easter, and one can't really say I "hyped it" as ya'll know that I desperately want spring and have never been happy to see a potential snowstorm slip OTS. I will continue to watch the storm tomorrow for any sudden, last-minute shifts to the north...but it appears at this time that the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will survive what could have been yet another potential Big Daddy of a snowstorm...

Anyway, now that the threat a snowstorm has been cleared up and my latest thoughts provided, I figured it's time to dwell on brighter days and hopes for a warmer pattern ahead! The storm on Wednesday, even though most will see only minor snowfall accumulations from it, is in all probability the finale storm as I have been saying for the past week or so. Behind the storm, a 1-2 day bitter cold shot will ensue across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast as one last arctic high pressure system passes through the region. Low and behold, though, that at the present time there are in fact NO MORE arctic highs waiting in the pipeline behind that one as has been the case for the past 40 days or so. This is the first time in over a month where no arctic high appears to be poised to come southward from Canada behind the one Thursday and Friday. Before the first surge of spring-like air comes into the eastern part of the country, though, the miserably cold days of Thursday and Friday will have to be dealt with. In my opinion, Thursday will feel like one of the coldest days in a long time across the Mid-Atlantic as temperatures struggle to reach freezing north of the PA Turnpike and struggle to reach 35-40 around D.C. and Baltimore. Friday will not be quite as bad, but I do not expect temperatures to climb above 35-40 north of the Mason/Dixon line...while they hold between 38 and 45 from Baltimore to Washington. But wait! Just when you think all hope is lost and the miserable chill of winter has a grip on your soul once more, the scene will change in the blink of an eye as Saturday should feature much warmer temperatures being the first day of a major warm-up across the region. The arctic high will move into the southeast and head off the eastern seaboard to a position off the Georgia and Carolina coasts...and if you know anything about weather, you know what that means: a warm, return flow around that high as warming southwesterly winds stream into the Mid-Atlantic region. By Saturday temperatures should break into the middle to upper 40s as far north as I-80 and reach 50 degrees along the Mason/Dixon line. Washington and Baltimore should reach 50-55 degrees, and the milder temperatures will be felt down into the Carolinas also. The real heart of the warm-up comes Sunday and Monday, though, as the true pool of warm air takes aim on the region. By Monday, in my opinion, temperatures should reach 60 degrees as far north as Harrisburg, PA, and possibly hit 65 along the Mason/Dixon line. A 70-degree reading is not out of the question in D.C., and Baltimore may even see 67-69 degrees. Farther north, the warm air will kind of hit a brick wall north and east of say Albany, NY, as it will have a tough time moving any further north in that region until Monday or Tuesday of next week. A high pressure system may try to sneak down from far eastern Canada and keep the warm air suppressed to the NY/PA border on south...but eventually, even the Northeastern states will get a taste of the Mid-Atlantic warm-up. By Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, a storm system will form in the Plains but, instead of taking a track along the Eastern Seaboard, this storm should track up through Chicago into the Lakes, bringing mild air, rain, and thunderstorms into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Only time will tell whether or not another cold shot will come in behind that system late next week, but that is for the long-term and another post. For now, though, prepare for one last gasp of winter for the rest of the week, and look forward to the first real surge of spring-like air into the region by the weekend. Those who are fed-up with winter, rejoice...because spring is nearly here :) This is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott reporting for the AKStormtracker Forecasting Center.