OK so here's the discussion that corresponds with my snowfall map I posted earlier. I am feeling pretty confident on the map as I really like the GFS' consistency and feel the factors are lined up for a snowstorm in the region I have outlined. A few points regarding the map:
1) I like the trend of the 18z DGEX as I noticed it came north from its 18z run of last evening and 06z run of this morning. It's still not what the GFS is showing, but it's a trend in the right direction as it's now showing accumulating snow up to at least the PA Turnpike to I-80 in Pennsylvania.
2) The GFS has been relatively consistent on this storm for the last several days now while the other models have been flip-flopping all over the place. Therefore, I am sticking with the GFS as I believe it is showing the best representation of how all the factors are going to play out.
3) I do NOT believe this storm will be confined to Maryland/VA/and northern North Carolina like the last ones. The northern extent of the snow, in my opinion, will be about 100 miles farther north than the last storm...or along I-80...as the block is going to be about 100 miles farther northeast than the last storm a few days ago. Also, this storm is not going to be meeting the resistance of a brutally cold airmass like the one that was in place a few days ago. Granted, it will be plenty cold for snow...but overall temperatures will have moderated 3-6 degrees from where they were a few days ago. This should allow for a more northern track with this storm.
4) The NAO is forecast to remain around -1 for this time frame...another sign that the East Coast is still vunerable for big storm development.
5) Finally, there now appears that a high pressure will be directly north of the storm as its tracking through the Midwest. This will keep the storm from cutting into the Lakes and bringing rain to the Eastern Seaboard. All we really need now is for that high to move with the storm and eventually end up locking in north of NY State. If that high does just that, in my opinion, all the factors will be set for a nice snowstorm on Christmas Day. As it stands now, I will stick with a general 4-8" snowstorm for the areas outlined on my map...with possibly as much as 8-14" in my deeper blue area if, and again I say a big IF...the storm bombs out on the coast. Otherwise, if it doesn't, it's just a general 4-8" snowstorm in the darker blue area too.
This is Student Meteorologist Kyle Elliott reporting for the AKStormtracker Forecasting Center.
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