5 P.M. Winter Storm Update...A Narrow Band Of Heavy Snow!

Hello this is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott with our 5 P.M. winter storm update...and the 18z run of both the GFS and NAM models are in. Surprisingly the NAM is now the agressor with the storm while the GFS has a warmer and weaker storm. According to the NAM version of things, the rain/snow line will set up along the Mason/Dixon line as the snow begins and then crash to around DC to Philly in the middle of the storm with a total of 3-6 inches accumulation for central and eastern Pennsylvania. According to the GFS, the rain/snow line will set up between York, PA, and the Mason/Dixon line to around Bethlehem and about 20 miles north of Philadelphia as the precipitation begins and only move south and east about 10-20 miles during the heart of the storm. If the GFS were to be right, rain and sleet would cut down on total snowfall accumulations...and totals would only be in the mere 1-4 range for most of central and eastern Pennsylvania. So, you may ask, what do I think will happen? Well I am going to make a bold move and say the NAM is the more accurate of the models at this point and very chilly air is moving into our area as compliments of a strong high pressure system. Also, the NAM has more precipitation which I like only because an upper-level disturbance is racing in from the Midwest as a storm blows up off the NC and VA coasts. When the disturbance transfers to the coastal, it explodes and throws precipitation back into the cold air into our area anywhere from tomorrow evening at 9 P.M. to approximately 10 A.M. on Monday. I think the NAM is right and the GFS is wrong because of those reasons. By the time the storm gets here, it should be nightfall across the state and temperatures should have already fallen back into the mid 30s instead of near 40 like the GFS says. So personally, I am going to take a risky move and go with the NAM even though most other models and forecasters think the GFS is right. I think the GFS is making a mistake in where the storm moves, and I think the NAM is right in taking it slightly farther east...causing us to get 85-95% of the precipitation as snow. I still like my forecast total snowfall accumulation from earlier, so I will stick with 3-5 inches for now...with highest amounts from Gettysburg, PA...to just south of Harrisburg, PA...over to Reading, PA...to Easton, PA...to Poughkeepsie, NY...to 15 miles west of Worcester, MA. Lowest amounts will fall north of Harrisburg and near and south of York as rain and sleet will mix in for a time cutting down on total accumulations, resulting in a mere 2-3 inch total. Also, south of that heavy snowfall line, sleet and rain will mix in for a time, also causing to totals to range from approximately 2-3 inches. North of that line, snowfall totals will range from 2-4 maybe 5 inches. Oh, and please understand, someone will get a surprise out of this storm as I would not doubt to see a 6-8...even 9...inch report anywhere from central and northeastern PA the whole way up to northern MA and southern Maine. So that's about where things stand for now, and those are my latest thoughts, so hope ya'll have a great rest of your evening and I'll update again later around 11 P.M. This has been Junior Meteorologist (Storm Tracker) Kyle Elliott with a special update for the AKStormtracker Forecasting Center!