Saturday, December 29, 2007

Daily Weather Pattern Discussion...Tricky Snowfall Forecast Tomorrow Night!

Hello this is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott with our daily weather pattern discussion...and it now appears very tricky to be able to pinpoint how much snow will fall in any given location tomorrow night as the coastal storm moves north. The latest 12z run of both the NAM and GFS models now have a weaker storm along the coast topped off by our area receiving no more than an inch of snow with the NAM and up to 4-7 with the GFS. I still personally like the GFS run, but things are becoming difficult to determine how strong and exactly where this storm is going to be by late tomorrow night. Personally, I think we will have a weaker storm coming out which then gets tapped by upper level energy shooting in from the Midwest, resulting in an explosion of moderate to heavy snow to form over our area by around Midnight tomorrow night. This storm will move through rather quickly as we should only see about an 8 to 10 hour period snow, but it should come down heavy enough that most places in central and eastern Pennsylvania see a quick 3-5 inches of snowfall accumulation by Monday morning with the isolated 6 or 7 inch amount. Things just don't seem to look as favorable this morning as they did last evening with the 18z runs, but let's hope things start looking up by the 18z runs of this evening. I still like my colleague's snow map, so still look to that for exact snowfall amounts for your area. Folks in West Virginia, though, it does not appear as if you'll get the 3-5 inches he is calling for as the storm should miss you to the northeast, but for everyone else, the snow map appears as if it should hold true. So that's where things stand for now and I will have much more later this afternoon with new updates and the 4:45 P.M. runs of both the 18z NAM and GFS models. If you have any questions on this forecast or would like to know my forecast total snowfall accumulation for your area of the Mid-Atlantic or the Northeast tomorrow night into early Monday, please, feel free to e-mail me at akstormtracker17@yahoo.com or kyleae@earthlink.net! This is Junior Meteorologist (Storm Tracker) Kyle Elliott reporting for the AKStormtracker Forecasting Center, in High Anticipation Mode!

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