Special Daily Weather Pattern Discussion…How Can You Make A Good Forecast With These Models?

Hello this is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott with a special daily weather pattern Discussion…and how in the world can I come to a specific conclusion on the weekend storm when these models are all over the place? Well it’s going to prove a challenge to nail any specific forecast accurately, but I and my colleague will do our best to sort things out tonight and over the next day or so. First, the latest run of the GFS model showed the storm 100-200 miles east of where it had been on the last run of the same model and much stronger too. Also, it pulls more cold air into the storm and shows a heavier snow for Pennsylvania too. Personally, I like that model run and I am going to stick with that for my discussion tonight. The primary low pressure center should move up to somewhere in West Virginia before transferring its moisture to the coastal somewhere between Cape Hatteras and Virginia Beach. After that, the coastal takes over and absolutely bombs out as it heads up toward Long Island and Massachusetts, providing eastern Pennsylvania heavy snow along with a mixture of sleet and/or freezing rain before ending as a burst of “backlash snow.” I am not even going to mention the latest run of the NAM as I think it is total nonsense, but in reality, I cannot pinpoint specific amounts at this time, although my colleague will post an early snowfall map on the storm sometime this evening. Basically my thoughts on this storm remain the same as last night even though models have varied and other scenarios have come up. So basically, I do not want to go into further discussion tonight until I see the 0z run of the GFS model in about an hour, so I will post much more in-depth discussion tomorrow as “Crunch Time” for the storm will be at hand. So at any rate, hope ya’ll have a great rest of your evening and I’ll talk to ya’ll on a very important tomorrow! This is Junior Meteorologist (Storm Tracker) Kyle Elliott reporting for the AKStormtracker Forecasting Center!