Daily Weather Pattern Discussion...High Anticipation Mode...Details Becoming Clearer!

Hello this is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott with our daily weather pattern discussion…and just like last night, the story remains the same, except some details are beginning to become more clear. There will definitely be a strong winter storm moving up the Eastern Seaboard Saturday through Sunday now, but just how strong it is and where exactly the heaviest snow will fall is still rather unclear. I did get the opportunity to look at the latest 18z run of the GFS model, though, and I was surprised but yet happy at what I saw. The latest run of the model seems to suggest that the heaviest snowfall from the storm will now fall in south-central Pennsylvania through southern and eastern New England…with decent snowfall amounts even being felt in the I-95 corridor. Personally I think this latest run of the model is right, as the initial low dies out before coming as far up the Appalachian Mountains giving way to a secondary low which should start in the North Carolina Plains. It then takes the lower offshore just north of Virginia Beach and bombs it out off the coast of New Jersey. If I was reading the millibars correctly, I thought I saw a pressure of 954 in the center of the storm by the time it gets off of Massachusetts, but I am not sure on that reading as the numbers were hard to read. But at any rate, the storm is forecast to be a 980 low once off the coast of New Jersey, and it should continue to intensify as it races up the coastline. So, you may ask, how much snow do I think we will see out of this storm? Well at the present time I think most of central and northern Pennsylvania sees at least a foot, with highest totals around Harrisburg northeastward toward Scranton. South of the Pennsylvania Turnpike, I do believe a mixture of wintry precipitation will mix in with the snow at times, cutting down the accumulations to around 7-9 inches around the Mason/Dixon line. Once the storm reaches New England, I would not be surprised to see some places walking away with 18-24 inches of snow, but that remains to be seen whether this storm will dump those high amounts or not. At any rate, I do think all of the Eastern Seaboard from the I-95 corridor to the Ohio River Valley northeastward will see a significant snowstorm…but whether or not this storm is one for the record books or not remains to be seen. Well I think I have thoroughly covered my latest thoughts on the possible weekend “MegaStorm,” so I will backtrack a few days and give a quick update on tomorrow. In reality, tomorrow’s forecast still remains vague for most of the Pennsylvania through New England, but I do think there will be a vast expanse of snow, sleet, and freezing rain across PA, NY, CT, Rhode Island, and MA tomorrow into tomorrow night. Just how much falls will have to wait and be seen, but I think at the present time that far northern Maryland sees a mix changing to rain and southern Pennsylvania from Gettysburg to West Chester sees snow changing to a mix of sleet and freezing rain with total accumulations of a dusting to 2 inches of snow and a tenth to quarter inch of ice. North of the Pennsylvania Turnpike and south of I-80, most places should end up with anywhere from 2-6 inches, with heavier amounts close to I-80 in the northeastern part of the state. North of I-80 into southern New York State, I would not be surprised to see amounts ranging from 5-9 inches, and 7-11 inches in parts of Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts before all is said and done. Right now it appears as if Boston will see around 4-8 inches, and New York City will see 2-3 inches before changing over to an icy mixture. In Philadelphia, snow and sleet should begin around sunrise tomorrow before changing over quickly to a mix of sleet and freezing rain…with snowfall accumulations a dusting to an inch and ice accumulations around a tenth of an inch at most. So that is about as accurate of forecast as I can offer right now, but details will only become completely clear by morning tomorrow. So my final forecast for us here in the Lower Susquehanna Valley would be a dusting to 2 inches of snow (at most) at upwards of a tenth to quarter inch of ice and freezing rain. For the Allentown area, I think you will see approximately 3-6 inches, but that could change depending on the exact track of the storm. Well I think I’ve covered my latest thoughts and the most likely scenarios for the upcoming two storms, so at any rate, hope ya’ll have a great rest of your evening and I’ll talk to ya’ll tomorrow! My colleague will be posting a final snow map for tomorrow's storm later this evening, so look forward to that! We may disagree somewhat on the total accumulations for some areas, so don't be surprised if what he puts for totals and what I discuss are slightly different, but our thoughts are pretty much the same so there should not be much of a noticeable difference. Anyway, this is Junior Meteorologist (Storm Tracker) Kyle Elliott reporting for the AkStormtracker Forecasting Center, in High Anticipation Mode!