12:30 A.M. 0z GFS Update...A DUD!

Hello this is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott with a quick 12:30 A.M. update...and the latest run of the 0z GFS model does not confirm my belief earlier...instead, it decided not to have a storm anywhere across the eastern half of the country at all on the 14th or 15th! I'm slightly surprised by this seeing as how the NAO is going to go neutral or even slightly negative, so I am not buying it at this point...but I still want to emphasize my point that snow will probably be hard to come by this month as the pattern just does not want to seem to shift to one of massive arctic outbreaks of cold air topped off by major snowstorms. Instead, the models indicate an almost constant battle between cold and warm air across our area as each and every storm will probably end up being a battle between rain and snow. So personally, if I was a gambler, I would definitely not put a single chip in for a bet of a snowstorm...instead, I would put all my chips in for a bet of no snow as the pattern just does not want to seem to spit out a snowstorm for our area this winter. Now, don't get me wrong, I do think we will begin to see much colder weather in February and March, but what I find interesting is we are in the same strength La Nina as we were in the winter of 1996-1997. In that winter, our total seasonal snowfall total at our house was a mere 4.5 inches. Not for one month, but for the entire season!! So if history repeats itself, don't look for many more snowstorms if any for the remainder of the winter. I can't completely buy into this as I do think a major storm will spin up either in February and March, but the bottom line should remain the same: predict rain over snow, and your forecasts will glow; predict snow over rain, and you might be insane! So before I go more insane with HYPE and such myself, I think I will refrain there for tonight and talk to ya'll tomorrow! Have a great night everybody! This has been Junior Meteorologist (Storm Tracker) Kyle Elliott with a special update for the AKStormtracker Forecasting Center!