6:10 P.M. 18z GFS Update...Where's The Storm?

Hello this is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott with a 5:40 P.M. 18z GFS update...and I was utterly shocked when I saw the model because it now has no storm anywhere at all on the 14th. It looked almost identical to last night's 0z run, and now the storm forms just east of Florida and stays almost 600 miles offshore on this run. Now let me make myself clear...I do NOT believe this solution at all, but it somewhat gives me a little wake-up call that this storm will not move up through the Great Lakes if it forms at all. So I don't really want to make a latest call on this storm today, but if I had to change my solution, I would have to go with a coastal storm or a storm that races right out to sea. I did not realize this storm was forming on the tail end of a front yesterday, but now that I do, I realize that there will be only a moderate chance of this storm forming and an even smaller chance of it moving up through the Great Lakes. Oh, and by the way, the GFS now shows a storm around hour 264 that races up the East Coast producing a near-blizzard for the East Coast and I-95 corridor. That is still way too far out yet, so I don't believe that either, but one thing that appears very certain is that much colder air is coming into our area by mid-month...and any storm that does spin up will have a very good chance of being snow over rain. But for the near term, you know how I will predict things: I'll predict rain over snow, and my forecast will glow; if I predict snow over rain, I might be insane! So in reality that is the motto I am going to be taking for the next 7 days or so before the cold air comes into our region...and don't look for snow before mid-month around the 14th, because it will remain very very warm right through the middle to end of this coming week. So that's all for now, and I'll try to update later when the 0z GFS comes out. Have a great evening everyone! This is Junior Meteorologist (Storm Tracker) Kyle Elliott with a special update for the AKstormtracker Forecasting Center!