Daily Weather Pattern Discussion...A Tough Forecast Is Never A Blast!

Hello this is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott with our daily weather pattern discussion...and the forecast for the storm tomorrow night into Monday seems to be becoming still more difficult with every model run. I have to admit it...for a forecaster like myself, a tough forecast is never a blast as I am stressing myself out trying to interpret all the models and data to come up with at least a half-decent forecast for this still uncertain storm. Even though things have been tough, I think I have finally come up with a decent forecast at this point...and here's what I have to say. First, I do NOT think the models are making enough out of the disturbance coming through Texas and Arkansas this evening. I think they do not factor into the equation what this energy may do to the storm along the coast. Unlike what the models think, I think this energy will blow up a stronger storm than what is forecasted and also pull it farther westward toward the coast of New Jersey. Second, the rain/snow line may end up being an issue not because of the upper-levels of the atmosphere but because of surface temperatures being so warm in the mid to upper 30s. I think things here in southern and eastern Pennsylvania will start out as rain for an hour late tomorrow evening as the precipitation begins but quickly change over to snow by 11 or 12 P.M. tomorrow night. Finally, I have been looking at all the energy across the southern states today, and that concerns me that the models are severely underestimating the strength of the storm because they are not picking up on the amount of energy that is running around this evening. When everything comes together on the coast tomorrow evening, I think we will be seeing a stronger low pressure system on the Carolina Coast than what is currently forecasted...and also a storm system that wants to move slightly farther westward than what the NAM and GFS models are saying. The end result, in my opinion, will be more snowfall farther south and westward and heavier snow across Northeast PA, southeastern NY, Connecticut, and Massachusetts. On the same token, I think warm air intrusion may become a problem for cities like New York and Philadelphia...with the heaviest band of snow forming about 20-40 miles west of the cities. Once you get about 100+ miles west of Philadelphia, I think snowfall accumulations will drop off drastically. Around New York City, I think precipitation will start out as light rain before changing over to snow around 1 A.M. Sunday night with heaviest accumulations in the hills of northern NJ and around Poughkeepsie, NY. Having said all this, I think the axis of heaviest snow will now run from Lancaster, PA, to Allentown, PA, to Morristown, NJ, to Poughkeepsie, NY, to Hartford, CT, to Worcester, MA. From New York City to Philadelphia, I am worried you guys end up with another crapshoot due to the warming that could come in as a result of the storm...but both cities should walk away with at least 3-5 inches of snow if not more. So that's about all I have for the 14th storm for now, so hope ya'll have a great rest of your evening and I'll update periodically throughout the evening! Oh, and one last thing...the 14th storm looks like a dud compared to what could be coming on January 17th...oh the possibilities! If you have any questions or thoughts on tomorrow night's and Monday's storm or would like to know my total snowfall accumulation for your area, please, feel free to e-mail me at akstormtracker17@yahoo.com or kyleae@earthlink.net! This is Junior Meteorologist (Storm Tracker) Kyle Elliott reporting for the AKStormtracker Forecasting Center, in Storm Alert Mode!