Daily Weather Pattern Discussion...The Clouds Burst!

Hello this is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott with our daily weather pattern discussion...and you may have recognized the title of my discussion today because it is the name of one of the final chapters of J.R.R. Tolkien's The Hobbit...but I gave it that title because it may apply to the weather sometime around the 14th here in Pennsylvania. The GFS is going through its normal Cha Cha Cha of the long range, but it now has consistenly shown a storm around the 14th of the month coming up the Eastern Seaboard. The latest run of the model was not that great as far as the storm was concerned, taking it out into the ocean with our area receiving no more than 2-3 inches of the white stuff, but I severely disagree with the 18z. I have been looking at things a little bit more closely today, and I have seen that the cold air across the north just does not want to give way to this warm up as much as was forecasted. As a result, I now think we will see peak highs across the Lower Susquehanna Valley of Pennsylvania not around 70, but rather between 60 and 65 this coming Monday and Tuesday. Also, I think this may be an indication of the bone chilling air that might invade or area sometime between the 13th and 17th of the month. Right now, I do not believe the 14th storm will be snow but rather another chilly rain event as I do think the models will eventually take the storm up through the Ohio River Valley and central Great Lakes. On the same hand, I do strongly believe that after the passage of the 14th storm, cold air will rush into our region with avengeance as I would not be surprised to see high temperatures only reaching the mid to upper 20s by January 16th or so. Oh, and I forgot to mention, I think their will be a second storm around January 18th following the 14th storm...but this time, something tells me the whole region will get snow... So that's about all I have for ya'll tonight, so hope ya'll have a great rest of your evening and I'll talk to ya'll later this evening if I post an update or tomorrow if I don't! If you have any questions on this forecast or would like to know my forecast for the weather in your area of the country for any day in the next two weeks or less, please, feel free to e-mail me at akstormtracker17@yahoo.com or kyleae@earthlink.net! This is Junior Meteorologist (Storm Tracker) Kyle Elliott reporting for the AKStormtracker Forecasting Center!