Daily Weather Pattern Discussion...Severe Storms And Warmth Tonight; Big Daddy Is Back!

Hello this is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott with our daily weather pattern discussion...and boy do we ever have the weather to talk about today as severe storms ans warmth could affect the area tonight. Oh, and by the way, THE BIG DADDY SNOWSTORM IS BACK!!! The latest 18z GFs model showed a front end inch of snow with the storm followed by warmer air and light mist/showers on Friday evening...but then as the storm explodes on the coast, the model shows icy cold air flood into the region accompanied by very heavy snow on Saturday with 4-8 inches total accumulation possible. I was actually thinking about making a new gut feeling map this afternoon as something inside me said just maybe this thing would move farther west than I thought, but I decided to wait for the 18z GFs model to run before I did that, and boy am I ever glad I did as the model basically was a carbon copy of my gut feeling snowfall map of last night. So before I discuss that storm any further, let me touch on the severe storm and warmth of tonight. First, heavy rain will break out across all...ALL...of Pennsylvania over the next 3-6 hours as a strengthening low pressure system approaches from the south and west. Along with that heavy rain, temperatures will slowly rise through the 40s and 50s over most of the state but will hold in the 30s across the far north and west. On the other hand, places from Philadelphia to York, PA, may actually see temperatures rise through the 60s as even warmer air surges northward toward the region from the south over the next 4-6 hours. As heavy rain develops and temperatures/dewpoints increase, flooding will become a concern for central PA to northeastern PA. Also, severe thunderstorms could affact anybody south of the PA Turnpike and east of Interstate 81 as more unstable air gets thrown into the region as the evening progresses. I do not think severe thunderstorms should be a major concern at this point, but the threat still does remain for damaging wind gusts in excess of 58 MPH especially from Lancaster to Philadelphia between the hours of 9 P.M. and Midnight. As far as the flooding aspect is concerned, places from Johnstown to Williamsport to Scranton should be on especially high alert as heavy rain in excess of two inches combined with very warm springlike temperatures and snowmelt will cause creeks, streams, and area rivers to surge past flood stage as the night progresses. Also, ice jams may become a concern on the far northern branch of the Susquehanna River south of Binghamton, NY, as warmer temperatures and heavy rains cause ice on the river to break up and pile up near low-lying riverside homes. On average, 1-2 inches of rain will fall across the state with isolated higher amounts from Harrisburg to Allentown to Scranton as heavier bands set up in some possibly stronger thunderstorms. So basically, if you live near creeks or rivers and a flood warning is issued for your area, take heed and seek higher ground as floods claim more lives in the United States per year than do tornadoes, hurricanes, etc. On a brighter note, if a dry slot comes over your area this evening before darkness falls, try to get out and enjoy the weather as it is quite warm outside with temperatures around 55-60 here in York, PA. Now of course, temperatures are much much colder just 50 miles north and west of me, but temperatures are even warmer near Philadelphia...so enjoy the springlike temperatures folks! Anyways, that about covers tonight's storm, so after this storm goes through, two nice sunny days will follow tomorrow and Thursday as highs reach the 40s/50s tomorrow and 50s on Thursday. Now of course, 40s will dominate in the north and west as 50s rule the south and east with possible 60 degree readings in spots on Thursday...but my overall point is that we are going to have a few nice days of near-to-above-average temperatures. So enjoy the break while we have it, because man could it ever be a wild weekend if the models are right!! Right now, something deep down inside tells me this storm will just be another rain event, but if the 18z GFS model is right we must watch out for BIG DADDY POSSIBILITIES!! So snow-lovers, hold your hopes high as this could be the last chance at snow south of I-80 this winter...and warm-weather lovers, hope for rain as if this scenario plays out, highs would be in the 50s. So that's about all I have for now, so hope ya'll have a great rest of your evening and I'll talk to ya'll later this evening as I post a video on the 8th storm possibility! This is Junior Meteorologist (Storm Tracker) Kyle Elliott reporting for the AKStormtracker Forecasting Center!