Fall Has Arrived...

Hello this is Kyle Elliott for the AKStormtracker Forecasting Center with an outlook for the next several days and early thoughts on how the month of October may pan out weather-wise. First, I want to apologize for my negligence on posting for the past 6 months...I guess you could say I've taken a long spring/summer vacation and have been rather busy. My schedule has been pretty jammed, and I haven't really thought about posting...but I know I could have made time for some posts here and there over the summer...so for that, I apologize. Anyways, I'm going to try to get back into posting once again as the fall and winter months approach. I'm not going to promise frequent posts, but I will try to get one in every week or two for the next month or two. As winter arrives, I will have time to post more frequently...but for now, I'll probably post once every week or so.

Anyways, as you have probably noticed, fall has made its presence felt in the Mid-Atlantic States and New England as a powerful cold front swept through the region on Tuesday. Temperatures dropped a solid 20 degrees behind this front as most places saw readings in the 60s and 70s both on Monday and Tuesday, only to be followed by 50s and even 40s near the Great Lakes for the past two days. As for the future, this is merely the first "cold shot" of early autumn...and by tomorrow temperatures will be back into the 50s throughout New England and the 60s and 70s from Pennsylvania to Virginia respectively. By Friday and Saturday, another front will make its way to the region...but it will lose most of its punch by the time it reaches the area as it will stall over the Ohio Valley region. This will result in the chance of showers and thunderstorms both Friday and Saturday as humidity and temperatures increase once again. 70s will abound throughout the Mid-Atlantic, and 60s will extend as far north as southern to central New England. By early next week, the front will slowly push through the region as we will experience several tranquil days with temperatures in the pleasant 60s in most places. After that, the forecasting models split and become erratic as to their agreement, so it is hard for me to determine what the best solution is at this point. In my opinion, though, due to a strengthening El Nino and a tanking NAO, the cold shot shown on the GFS model around the 10th of October seems quite valid to me. I think the East Coast is entering a pattern where a trough will be in place for several weeks if not months, so do not expect much warm weather to return until at least mid-month when an Indian Summer like pattern seems to be being hinted at by the models.

As far as hype is concerned, I will leave you tonight with an image of the 18z GFS model at 300 hours that ran earlier this evening. The model shows that the 850 millibar temperatures are cold enough for snow in a pocket from Washington, DC, to New York City as a powerful coastal storm charges up the coast...but please understand that this will NOT happen as snow simply cannot occur in the I-95 corridor in early October. I do believe, though, that seeing this Hype on the model this early in the season is an indication that a hard, snowy winter is ahead for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. I know I forecasted the same last year and, while the cold I forecasted came to fruition, the snow never really happened...but this year I am much more confident in that forecast as an El Nino normally yields big snows along the I-95 corridor. With a trough-like pattern taking hold of the Eastern Seaboard just as mid-fall and the winter months approach, I believe the stage is set for many a major snowstorm this winter in places that were snow-starved last year. So without further adieu, I will leave you with the 300 hour GFS model...have a good one everybody, and I'll post again soon!