Post-Storm Analysis...Many More Storms To Come!

Hello this is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott...and there are several storms in the pipeline that could potential bring snowfall to the Mid-Atlantic states and Northeastern U.S. over the next few weeks. First, though, before I dive into discussing the next storms, I first want to do my traditional post-storm write-up critiquing my final storm snowfall map that I made for the storm that affected the Mid-south and Mid-Atlantic the last two days. Overall, I would give myself an A for this storm as I was advertising and stressing the fact that the pattern looked loaded with potential for an east coast storm around the end of January since early-mid month. Granted, the storm didn't make it to I-80 and southern New England like I originally thought it would around mid-month, but having to come south a mere 100 miles or so in the last 5 days before the storm is not a big deal but is instead a pretty darned good forecast considering I forecasted that 17 days before the storm happened. Very little shifts were needed in my original first-bet snowfall map for this storm, and I stuck with my guns that snow would still make it to the Mason/Dixon line even when the models 2 days before the storm were showing snow only reaching the southern suburbs of D.C. In the end, I am very glad I stuck with my guns as D.C. got even more than the 2-4" of snowfall I'd forecast, and Baltimore got way more than the 1-3" I'd forecast. Most places between the Mason/Dixon line and Washington, D.C., saw between 4 and 8 inches of snowfall...with 5-7" in the southern and western burbs of D.C. Ironically, that forecast still remained correct anywhere from D.C. points southwest, south, and east...but the bust area occured from D.C. to the Mason/Dixon line where amounts were about 2-4" heavier than I'd forecast in general. The models were forecasting a sharp but gradual cutoff in the snow amounts over a distance of about 90 miles...instead, the cut off was sharp and not gradual whatsoever. Everybody got the 4 + inch snowfall amounts...even into southern York and Adams Counties...with people 10 miles north of that line seeing nothing at all but a few flurries. Honestly, phenomena like that are pretty much impossible to predict accurately...so I'm not surprised this happened or at the fact that I busted in those areas. Other than that 40 square mile area, though, my snowfall performed excellently as most everybody saw what the map predicted. Overall, about 85-90% of the map was correct...so I'm now 6 for 8 overall and 5 for 8 locally on my accuracy for the winter. This storm was one which was fascinating to track and watch develop, and many people north of Washington, D.C., were pleasantly surprised as the Polar Vortex was slightly weaker than modeled and the Bermuda high slightly stronger than forecast...both of which allowed for the heavier snowfall amounts to come about 50 miles farther north than what was forecast a day before the storm. Those who got the surprise, I'm happy for you guys, and enjoy! Now, time to move onto what's ahead...

First, a rather weak storm system will gather over the eastern Gulf of Mexico tomorrow and track northeastward from there. Rain will break out in Georgia and the Carolinas, and if the storm is able to partially phase with a weak clipper system coming across the Ohio Valley, and band of snowfall could break out from north-central Virginia through Maryland and Pennsylvania Tuesday night. A general 1-3" could fall if this occurs across a rather widespread area...but I'm very skeptical as to that happening at this point. Both the GFS and GGEM model suggest that possibility...but the Euro and Nam model both track the storm out to sea with only flurries and snow showers throughout the Mid-Atlantic states. Personally, I am leaning toward the Euro and Nam as there is really no titled trough along the East Coast to bring the storm farther north and allow for a partial phase. Also, there is a strong, blocking high pressure system still anchored over northern NY state...which would lead me to believe that the storm is suppressed, allowing precipitation to reach only as far north as Richmond, VA, to Ocean City, MD. In a scenario like this, some sleet or snow could break out on the far northern end of the system...but temperatures would be marginal that far south and accumulations minor. Overall, this should be a non-event as I see it for snowfall...though if models continue to trend north and west with this system tomorrow, I will have to adjust my forecast.

After that system moves through, attention turns to the weekend as models have been showing and the pattern setting up for potential of an East Coast monster that delivers a crushing blow of snow to the entire Eastern Seaboard. Models yesterday were trending toward an Apps Runner to secondary developement or even a huge primary storm that rides up the coast...but I didn't believe that at that point and still don't know...especially since models today have been trending toward another snowstorm in the southern Mid-Atlantic but no snow farther north as the storm then goes out to sea from there. In my opinion, the storm will actually end up going out to sea this time and affect the same areas that the previous storm did. I do not believe snow will occur in southern VA and northern NC...but from Richmond to far southern Pennsylvania I see the potential for a crippling dump of snowfall as the storm kind of gets trapped off the Delmarva Peninsula for a day before finally creeping out to sea. If this occurs and the storm occludes, MD, VA, DE, and southern Jersey could see a monstrous snowstorm as 1-2' of snowfall would be common. I'm not buying that much snowfall for those areas yet, but I do believe that areas from Roanoke to Richmond to Ocean City, MD, points north to Philadelphia, Lancaster, York, and Hagerstown, MD, could be in for a significant dump of snowfall. North of the PA Turnpike, in my opinion, expect little to no snowfall once again as the storm will not be able to roar up the coast due to the blocking high pressure system that I believe will center itself and hold its ground in northern NY state once again. Also, I have doubts as to whether the trough along the Eastern Seaboard is going to take on a negative tilt. If it fails to do this, then the storm would go off Hatteras and not occlude...giving the above mentioned places another snowstorm similar to the one that just occured, but not historic. In my opinion, this solution is the best one at this point...but I am also watching for the potential that the high pressure actual retreats as the storm moves northward, giving leeway for a rapidly deepening nor'easter that would produce a blizzard for everybody as it tracks into the Gulf of Maine. Those are the two scenarios I see on the table at this point...so that's about all I for now. Have a great rest of your evening, and I'll talk to ya'll later. This is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott reporting for the AKStormtracker Forecasting Center.