Storm Discussion...Snow To The Mason/Dixon Line, Heavy Snow Virginia

Hello this is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott...and the long-anticipated East Coast storm that I've been stressing for more than two weeks now is finally going to come to fruition. Snow is currently streaking across Kansas, Missouri, and northern Arkansas...getting ready to make an entrance into Tennessee and Kentucky. As the storm intensifies across the southern Gulf States and northern Gulf of Mexico today and tonight, heavy snow will move into western Virginia by 10 PM and should reach the coast by 3 A.M. The heaviest snow band should set up across southern and south-central Kentucky through far northern Tennessee late this afternoon and tonight...and streak eastward through the mountains of western North Carolina along the NC/VA border late tonight through tomorrow evening. That band will extend northward to Richmond, Lynchburg, and Fredericksburg, VA, over toward Assateague Island. Within the heaviest band of snow, a general 6-10" of snow can be expected with isolated accumulations as high as 13-15" in the higher elevations of farther southwestern Virginia and northwestern North Carolina. I do not believe, as my snowfall map that I posted last evening reflected, that Raleigh will get in on the heaviest snowfall as mixing will be a serious issue south of a line from Norfolk to Rocky Mount to Greensboro to Boone...greatly limiting the snowfall amounts. Precipitation in those areas will definitely end as all snow, where a quick 3-6" may accumlate south of the above mentioned line. The farther south you go from that line, though, the more your snowfall amounts will decrease. A serious ice storm will take place south of that line by about 50-150 miles where upwards of a half inch of freezing rain could accumulate in places. The upper level cold air will retreat during the beginning and height of the storm, resulting in a major icestorm from central Arkansas to central and southern Tennessee and central North Carolina into the mountains of Northeastern Georgia and western South Carolina. Now, I will discuss the potential for areas north of that heaviest snowfall band. North of Richmond, VA, to Charlottesville, VA, a rather sharp cutoff should begin to occur with the storm...but models have been coming around to a northward trend in the snowfall as I expected they might do when I posted my final map last night. The 00z suite of models last night had snow basically not making it any farther north than the southern suburbs of D.C...now models are giving D.C. at least 1-3, if not 2-4, inches on the new 12z suite coming out as I post this. Accumulating snowfall makes it to the Mason/Dixon line...as even Baltimore is now modeled to receive a possible 1-2" of snow. So, it appears as though I have made a good call in extending the snowfall area farther north than what the models showed last night as it appears the trough is slightly more tilted than the models forecasted. Also, the Polar Vortex looks as though it is slightly weaker and farther northeast than forecasted last night, so that would allow the storm to come farther north by about 50-100. In the end, I believe D.C. will get around 2-4"...with an isolated 5" amount possible on the far southern burbs of the city in Northern Virginia...and Baltimore will get 1-3" of snowfall as I showed on my map. North of the Mason/Dixon line is places such as York, Gettysburg, Harrisburg, and Lancaster...I believe light snow showers should occur but will lead to no accumulation. Right along the Mason/Dixon line, a light dusting of snow could occur with up to an inch possible along the border on I-83...but that is only if the storm comes yet another 20-30 miles north. If I had to pick a spot to be for this storm, it would probably be Danville, VA, or possible Farmville, VA, as I believe the "sweet spot" of snowfall will be about 50 miles to the east and southeast of Roanoke...where upwards of 14-15" could fall. For fun, I'll give my forecast accumulations for a few cities as I conclude this discussion:

D.C.-2-4"
Baltimore-1-3"
Fredericksburg, VA-3-6"
Richmond, VA-7-10"
Roanoke, VA-7-11"
Emporia, VA-8-12"
Danville, VA-9-14"
Norfolk, VA-4-7"
Boone, NC-8-12"
Charlottesville, VA-4-8"
Tappahannock, VA-6-10, maybe upwards of 12" in spots
Lynchburg, VA-7-12"
Raleigh, NC-1-5"
Roanoke Rapids-3-7"

So that's my call for a few cities I've chosen to highlight in Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina...we'll see how I do and how those forecasts verify in the end. I expect the most potential error to be on the northern end of the snow area and again on the southern area where mixing could last longer and significanlty cut down on snowfall totals south of the line I mentioned earlier in my discussion. So that's about all I have for now, so have a great rest of your evening and folks in the southern Mid-Atlantic, enjoy your snow but stay safe as this is about the most snow some of you guys ever see out of a given storm. Take precautions, hunker down, and snow geese: enjoy! This is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott reporting for the AKStormtracker Forecasting Center.