Special Daily Weather Pattern Discussion...MegaStorm A'Comin?

Hello this is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott with a special daily weather pattern discussion...and my oh my, what seemed like a dream last night may possibly become a reality by this weekend as the GFS, EURO, and JMA models still show a horrible "MegaStorm" for the East Coast and Pennsylvania this weekend! I have been able to contain my excitement level a little better this evening as I have realized that because this event is still five days out that it is still classified as "HYPE," but even still, I want to say that the possibility is there for this storm to rival the Blizzard of '96 and the Superstorm of '93. At the present time, the GFS model shows the storm tracking up the I-95 corridor, sparing the major cities like D.C. and Philly a gigantic snowstorm but at the same time producing a blizzard across the interior. The EURO has the storm farther offshore, giving a mixed bag of rain and snow to the cities and heavy snows in central Pennsylvania and New York State. I have not seen the latest JMA model, but the DGEX model shows the storm much farther south and farther out to sea. If the DGEX is right, the major cities get slammed and the interior areas see only a light to moderate snowstorm. So, having said all that, how, you may ask, can one put that all together to give what would seem like a logical forecast? Well, I have done my best at this early stage and here is the solution I have come up with. Personally, I like the DGEX model at this stage, as a strong northwesterly flow will move into our region by Friday. Due to this flow and the track of the storm Thursday, which I will touch on later, I see no reason why this storm will stay inland as it comes across our area. Instead, this storm should get "drawn" toward the coast somewhere near Virginia and then explode as it moves northward. Plus the models are missing the extent of the cold air that will be in place, so that will also cause more snow to fall. So for my official forecast at this point, I would take the storm off the coast near Virginia Beach or southern Maryland and Delaware and explode it somewhere between where the DGEX and EURO models have it now. So when all is said and done, I think the major cities will end up with about 5-10 inches of snow and central Pennsylvania and southern New York State will see about 10-17 inches. But trust me, that is very rough at this point, and my colleague and I will have to do much fine-tuning to that forecast, so cross your fingers, but I'm not promising anything yet snow-lovers. So that's about all I'm going to say about the possible "MegaStorm" this weekend, but now I'm going to turn my attention to what may happen Thursday here in eastern Pennsylvania. In reality, Thursday is becoming a very challenging forecast too, as yesterday the models showed eastern Pennsylvania mostly in the 40s but have now gone to a colder solution in the lower to middle 30s. Oh, and the latest solution continues to show colder air and a more southern storm track. My best guess right now is that the center of the storm moves through central Virginia and gains strength off the coast of Delaware, so that the heaviest swath of snow moves across central and northern Pennsylvania along with southern New York State. But, on the same token, I also think that eastern Pennsylvania could see anywhere from 1-5 inches depending on location and exact storm track. So my colleague and I will definitely fine tune Thursday's forecast, but for now, my forecast is that most places in Eastern Pennsylvania get on the order of 2-4 inches of snow, but as I said, that could change. My colleague will post an updated snow map on Thursday's storm tonight, so that will give ya'll a more exact forecast for more exact locations around the area! So look forward to that! At any rate, though, we will be in a VERY active and possibly historical weather pattern over the next few days, so stay safe and enjoy it! But for now, I think I've rambled on enough, so hope ya'll have a great rest of your evening and I'll talk to ya'll tomorrow! This is Junior Meteorologist (Storm Tracker) Kyle Elliott reporting for the AKStormtracker Forecasting Center!