Thursday, January 31, 2008

Daily Weather Pattern Discussion...GFS BIG DADDY!

Hello this is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott with our daily weather pattern discussion...and you would never believe what the cat coughed up on hour 204 of the 18z GFS run: A BIG DADDY SNOWSTORM! Believe it or not, the GFS actually showed a major snowstorm for the entire I-95 corridor around February 9th, with amounts varying from 4-12 inches with locally higher amounts for the entire Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions. Now keep in mind that this is just HYPE at this point as nothing is certain beyond about 84 hours...and even then things change...so don't get too excited yet, but things are looking rather favorable for a big storm sometime in the next 2 weeks or so. The only thing going against a snowstorm for the East Coast is the latest NAO forecast, which has the NAO going positive instead of negative around the time the storm might occur. And you might not believe it, but the cat didn't stop there as it also coughed out a big storm around February 16th/17th as another Big Daddy Snowstorm slammed parts of the I-95 corridor from Washington to New York. The GFS theorized a general 9-14 inch accumulation for those areas, but I just laughed when I saw it because in all likelihood it will never come true. The one I am looking at now though is the 9th storm as I think it has better potential than the storms of the past month or two. Anyways, now that I've thoroughly covered the long-range, I'll deal with what's coming up for our area tomorrow. A major winter storm, the "Hog's Day Storm" that I mentioned yesterday, will move up through the Ohio River Valley tomorrow and jump to the I-95 corridor late tomorrow afternoon and evening before exiting the picture early on Hog's Day. Numerous winter weather advisories, heavy snow warnings, winter storm warnings, and snow advisories have been issued anywhere from the Mississippi River eastward to the coast of the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions. The heaviest corridor of snow will probably run from St. Louis to Chicago to Detroit and Buffalo, but precipitation should end as snow across most of New York and Pennsylvania before tapering off sometime tomorrow evening. On the front end of the storm, sleet and freezing rain will be a concern from Virginia to central PA and NY, but temperatures should warm by Friday afternoon so that precipitation changes over to mainly rain before temperatures crash again in the evening as precipitation changes back over to snow with up to an inch of accumulation possible. Overall, this will be a powerful storm that will have vast affects on much of the country, so stay tuned and I'll provide updates throughout the evening hours tomorrow! My current forecast for the York/Lancaster/Allentown areas is for a tenth to quarter inch of ice secretion late tonight into tomorrow morning before precipitation changes over to rain sometime tomorrow morning or afternoon. I do think that a brief burst of snow will be likely as precipitation ends tomorrow evening, but on the same token, I think accumulation will be light with a dusting at most with most areas seeing no snowfall accumulation at all. So that's about all I have for ya'll for now, so hope ya'll have a great rest of your evening and I'll talk to ya'll tomorrow! If you have any questions on this forecast or would like to know my forecast snow/sleet/ice accumulations for your area for the storm tomorrow and Hog's Day, please, feel free to e-mail me at akstormtracker17@yahoo.com or kyleae@earthlink.net! This is Junior Meteorologist (Storm Tracker) Kyle Elliott reporting for the AKStormtracker Forecasting Center!

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