Daily Weather Pattern Discussion...In-Depth Discussion About The 14th Storm!

Hello this is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott with our daily weather pattern discussion...and this discussion will mostly be devoted to the details surrounding the 14th storm...along with my thoughts and analysis on this possible upcoming winter weather event. First, though, today was another warm day here in South Central Pennsylvania with high temperatures reaching the lower to middle 60s in the Lower Susquehanna Valley this morning before falling into the mid 50s late in the afternoon with the passage of a cold front. Tomorrow, it will be mostly cloudy after sunshine early with highs around 50 here. On Friday, another rainstorm will push through our area as highs once again climb into the 60s across the Lower Susquehanna Valley and 50s elsewhere. On Saturday and Sunday, marginally cooler air will come into our area with highs in the upper 40s both days. Now that that's all covered, I've come to Sunday night and Monday which involve the possibility of the much-anticipated 14th storm. I figured, because there is so much confusion, that I would do my best to straighten things out and post some in-depth discussion about this possible upcoming event. First, the cold air which is supposed to be shoving this storm out to sea on the GFS model is not coming nearly as much as the model shows. It basically shows highs in the upper 30s to near 40 for the I-95 corridor on Saturday and Sunday, which will not come to fruition as highs will be warmer than that. The GFS is making its critical mistake in showing the cold air pushing down to the coast too fast which in turn causing the storm to head out to sea. On the contrary to what the GFS says, the cold air will not push down to the coast quickly...instead, it will be coming slowly and most likely catch the storm which will be riding up the coast, producing a major snowstorm for folks along and just north and west of the I-95 corridor on Sunday night and Monday. The pattern we are in is very progressive, and first of all, I do not see this storm taking until Monday to reach the Mid-Atlantic States as it should move slightly faster than what is forecasted. The fast movement of the storm may cut down on accumulations, but I think the storm will strengthen enough to put down heavy rates of snowfall in short amounts of time...so that should not be a major issue. Also, one storm tracked just west of Chicago and into Canada last night and today...Friday's storm is going to track just west of the Pennsylvania/Ohio border...so wouldn't that mean that the late weekend storm would track about 200 miles to the east of New Jersey? Well I sure think so...and the result would be a half-decent snowstorm for just north and west of the major cities. Right now, I think the heaviest corridor of snow will run from Warrenton, VA...to Frederick, MD...to York, Lancaster, and Harrisburg, PA...to Scranton, PA...to Poughkeepsie, NY...and finally up to Boston, MA. I still like that snowfall map I map two days ago, so I'm not sure if I will be making a new one or not tonight...so for now, I think the snow map, given my thoughts and the pattern, should do well for the weekend storm. So still look at that map for now for exact details, but I will try to post a new map with my very latest thoughts either tonight or tomorrow afternoon and evening. So that's about all I have for now, but I will continue to post updates through the evening as new information comes in. If you have any questions or thoughts about the storm, please, feel free to e-mail me at akstormtracker17@yahoo.com or kyleae@earthlink.net! This is Junior Meteorologist (Storm Tracker) Kyle Elliott reporting for the AKStormtracker Forecasting Center!