Sunday, May 25, 2008
A Concerning Situation...Big Severe Outbreak Across Southern PA Tomorrow Evening!
Hello this is Junior Meteorologist Kyle Elliott...and even though I said I would not post until June 1st, a possibly pressing/concerning situation has arose in the last day or two that I feel I must adress. That situation is the grave possibility of intense, supercell thunderstorms across central and south-central Pennsylvania tomorrow evening between the hours of 5 and 9 P.M. EHI values are somewhat high across the Harrisburg Tornado Belt area, and temperatures should go screaming up the scale tomorrow with highs topping out in the lower to middle 80s across the Lower Susquehanna and Delaware Valleys. The one ingredient that may be lacking to really jump start this severe outbreak is dewpoints, as some indications point to that fact that they may only reach the 50s in most places. If, on the contrary, we can get dewpoints to shoot up into the 60s tomorrow evening, then this possible severe weather outbreak will probably come to fruition. Yesterday, I did not think this was possible tomorrow evening, but now models have changed significantly to indicate the possibility of strong thunderstorm development across the central mountains and peidmont of Pennsylvania. I am still not sure whether I want to bite on this one fully or not, but looking as how severe weather has erupted this evening where models showed the same thing, I feel it is urgent I at least alert ya'll to the fact that severe thunderstorms are at least a possibility across the area late tomorrow afternoon through early tomorrow night. So, as tomorrow is Memorial Day, just keep an eye to the sky if you have any outdoor activities planned and remember, if severe thunderstorms threaten, move indoors and stay aware from windows. If a tornado warning is issued, move to the lowest or most interior level of your home. So, personally I think tomorrow evening will stand a better chance of isolated supercell/severe thunderstorms than Tuesday will, but maybe I'm wrong. On Tuesday, though, significant cloudcover should limit heating which in turn would limit severe thunderstorm development. That is the reason I think tomorrow evening will be a bigger concern than Tuesday...if it heats up bigtime tomorrow and becomes quite humid, watch out for Mother Nature's fireworks tomorrow evening. If cloudcover comes in early tomorrow, then we may luck out and see minimal severe weather. At any rate, though, I do think thunderstorms will form somewhere in the state tomorrow so just keep an eye to the sky on your Memorial Day Monday. Well that's about all I have to say for now, so hope ya'll have a great night and a great Memorial Day; stay safe, and I'll talk to ya'll later! This has been Junior Meteorologist (Storm Tracker) Kyle Elliott reporting for the AKStormtracker Forecasting Center!
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